IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlaop/v2014y2014i1id424p27-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Modelling of a Firm's Default

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Řičař

Abstract

Enormous development of firm valuation from many aspects can be seen in the recent period. One of the main fields is scoring, which provides a probability verdict about the future development of a firm: its probability of default. This article focuses on introducing macroeconomic modelling using VEC models to predict the future level of default in the Czech economy. Our results have proven a general connection between corporate defaults and the macroeconomic condition of the economy, which is going through a convergence process. The specific findings are new and have not been observed yet. A connection between the GDP and defaults revealed a positive relationship, which is probably a consequence of the convergence process, a development of the economy in many new fields. We have also found a long-term equilibrium among unemployment, loans, price of oil and defaults. We have revealed a higher level of defaults can be expected in 2013, which is connected with the economic contraction in the prediction period.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Řičař, 2014. "Macroeconomic Modelling of a Firm's Default," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 27-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlaop:v:2014:y:2014:i:1:id:424:p:27-40
    DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.424
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://aop.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.aop.424.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://aop.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.aop.424.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.aop.424?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    2. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    3. Danny Miller & Peter H. Friesen, 1984. "A Longitudinal Study of the Corporate Life Cycle," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(10), pages 1161-1183, October.
    4. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    6. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2013. "Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-642-33436-8, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Latzer, Hélène, 2018. "A Schumpeterian theory of multi-quality firms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 766-802.
    2. Enea Baselgia & Reto Foellmi, 2022. "Inequality and growth: a review on a great open debate in economics," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-5, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Sun, Tianyu & Tian, Liu, 2023. "No pain, no gain: implications in consumption and economic growth," MPRA Paper 118081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gilles Saint-Paul, 2023. "The educated class and the fragility of consumer society," PSE Working Papers halshs-04129252, HAL.
    5. Sun, Tianyu & Tian, Liu, 2023. "No pain, no gain: implications in consumption and economic growth," SocArXiv 95fdm, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Virolainen, Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
    2. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    3. André Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005. "Business and default cycles for credit risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 311-323.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Virolainen, Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
    6. Bertrand Rime, 2007. "Could Regional and Cantonal Banks Reduce Credit Risk through National Diversification?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(I), pages 49-65, March.
    7. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
    8. G'eraldine Bouveret & Jean-Franc{c}ois Chassagneux & Smail Ibbou & Antoine Jacquier & Lionel Sopgoui, 2023. "Propagation of carbon tax in credit portfolio through macroeconomic factors," Papers 2307.12695, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    9. Tomáš Vaněk & David Hampel, 2017. "The Probability of Default Under IFRS 9: Multi-period Estimation and Macroeconomic Forecast," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 759-776.
    10. Cifter, Atilla & Yilmazer, Sait & Cifter, Elif, 2009. "Analysis of sectoral credit default cycle dependency with wavelet networks: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1382-1388, November.
    11. Ferrer, Alex & Casals, José & Sotoca, Sonia, 2015. "Sample dependency during unconditional credit capital estimation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 175-186.
    12. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    13. Schechtman, Ricardo, 2013. "Default matrices: A complete measurement of banks’ consumer credit delinquency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 460-474.
    14. Ebnother, Silvan & Vanini, Paolo, 2007. "Credit portfolios: What defines risk horizons and risk measurement?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3663-3679, December.
    15. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2008. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 510-525.
    16. Trueck, Stefan & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2008. "Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123736833.
    17. Collet, Jerome & Ielpo, Florian, 2018. "Sector spillovers in credit markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 267-278.
    18. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2004. "Incorporating Systemic Influences Into Risk Measurements: A Survey of the Literature," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 161-191, October.
    19. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Pieter Klaassen, 2002. "Pro-Cyclicality, Empirical Credit Cycles, and Capital Buffer Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-107/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.
    21. Correa, Arnildo & Marins, Jaqueline & Neves, Myrian & da Silva, Antonio Carlos, 2014. "Credit Default and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation of Brazilian Retail Loans," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(3), September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    scoring; econometric modelling; VEC; corporate default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlaop:v:2014:y:2014:i:1:id:424:p:27-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.