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Analysis of sectoral credit default cycle dependency with wavelet networks: Evidence from Turkey

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  • Cifter, Atilla
  • Yilmazer, Sait
  • Cifter, Elif

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between industrial production and sectoral credit defaults (non-performing loans ratio) cycle by wavelet network analysis in Turkey over the period January 2001-November 2007. We use feedforward neural network based wavelet decomposition to analyze the contemporaneous connection between industrial production cycles and sectoral credit default cycles at different time scales between 2 and 64Â months. The main findings for Turkey indicates that industrial production cycles effect the sectoral credit default cycles at different time scales and thus indicate that the creditors should consider the multiscale sectoral cycles in order to minimize credit default rates.

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  • Cifter, Atilla & Yilmazer, Sait & Cifter, Elif, 2009. "Analysis of sectoral credit default cycle dependency with wavelet networks: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1382-1388, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:6:p:1382-1388
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    Cited by:

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    3. Oguzhan Cepni & Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2020. "Credit decomposition and economic activity in Turkey: A wavelet-based approach," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(3), pages 109-131.
    4. Hakimi, Abdelaziz & Hamdi, Helmi, 2013. "Credit Information, Guarantees and Non-Performing Loans," MPRA Paper 55750, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    5. Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2018. "Why do firms default on their foreign currency loans? The case of Hungary," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 207-222.
    6. Martin Macháček & Aleš Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2018. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Non-Performing Loans: A Meta-Regression Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(3), pages 351-374.
    7. Mariusz Górajski & Dobromił Serwa & Zuzanna Wośko, 2019. "Measuring expected time to default under stress conditions for corporate loans," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 31-52, July.
    8. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    9. Castro, Vítor, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 672-683.
    10. Haithem Awijen & Younes Ben Zaied & Ahmed Imran Hunjra, 2023. "Systematic and Unsystematic Determinants of Sectoral Risk Default Interconnectedness," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(2), pages 561-587, August.
    11. Kanas, Angelos & Molyneux, Philip, 2018. "Macro stress testing the U.S. banking system," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 204-227.
    12. Sergio Edwin Torrico Salamanca, 2014. "Macro credit scoring as a proposal for quantifying credit risk," Investigación & Desarrollo 0814, Universidad Privada Boliviana, revised Nov 2014.
    13. Fatima Zohra Marouf & Zeyneb Guellil, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Credit Risk: The Algerian Banking System," MIC 2017: Managing the Global Economy; Proceedings of the Joint International Conference, Monastier di Treviso, Italy, 24–27 May 2017,, University of Primorska Press.
    14. Petr Jakubik & Eyup Kadioglu, 2022. "Factors affecting bank loan quality: a panel analysis of emerging markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 437-458, July.
    15. Chaibi, Hasna & Ftiti, Zied, 2015. "Credit risk determinants: Evidence from a cross-country study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-16.
    16. Sascha Tobias Wengerek & Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde, 2019. "Risk allocation through securitization - Evidence from non-performing loans," Working Papers Dissertations 58, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    17. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:656:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    19. Ghosh, Amit, 2017. "Sector-specific analysis of non-performing loans in the US banking system and their macroeconomic impact," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 29-45.

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