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State-Uncertainty preferences and the Risk Premium in the Exchange rate market

  • Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin

    ()

    (Dpto. de Fundamentos de Análisis Económico II, Universidad Complutense)

  • Alfonso Novales Cinca

    ()

    (Dpto. de Fundamentos de Análisis Económico II, Universidad Complutense)

This paper introduces state-uncertainty preferences into the Lucas (1982) economy, showing that this type of preferences helps to explain the exchange rate risk premium. Under these preferences we can distinguish between two factors driving the exchange rate risk premium: “macroeconomic risk” and “the risk associated with variation in the private agents’ perception on the level of uncertainty”. State-uncertainty preferences amount to assuming that a given level of consumption will yield a higher level of utility the lower is the level of uncertainty perceived by consumers. Furthermore, empirical evidence from three main European economies in the transition period to the euro provides empirical support for the model

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Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico in its series Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE with number 0908.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0908
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