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The Use Of Spreads In Forecasting Medium Term U.K Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • B. Pesaran
  • G. Wright

    (University of East London, Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper aims to extend recent work on the term structure of interest rates by establishing, in the context of the medium term UK interbank market, forecasting models which make use of market spreads as error correction terms. These models are then used withi n a trading scenario to test the short run efficiency of the market, The results indicate that this market is inefficient in the short run. Furthermore, the performance of the multi-step-ahead forecasts from the models suggest that this may be a fruitful avenue for further research into longer maturity rates.

Suggested Citation

  • B. Pesaran & G. Wright, "undated". "The Use Of Spreads In Forecasting Medium Term U.K Interest Rates," Working Papers 9606, University of East London, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wuk:elecwp:9606
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest Rates; Spreads; Forecasting; Long Run Structural Modelling; Market Efficiency;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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