IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpem/0206001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic paths of the European economy: simulations using an EU aggregate model

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Bagnai

    (University of Roma I)

  • Francesco Carlucci

    (University of Rome I)

Abstract

Using an aggregate econometric model for the EU we investigate by simulation methods some dynamic paths of the European economy in the next five years under alternative hypotheses concerning the growth of world demand, the European currency/USD exchange rate, and the monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Bagnai & Francesco Carlucci, 2002. "Dynamic paths of the European economy: simulations using an EU aggregate model," Econometrics 0206001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0206001
    Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on IBM PC; to print on HP Laserjet; pages: 23; figures: included. PDF document submitted via upload form
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/em/papers/0206/0206001.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-1357, September.
    3. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    4. Jeroen J. M. Kremers & Timothy D. Lane, 1990. "Economic and Monetary Integration and the Aggregate Demand for Money in the EMS," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(4), pages 777-805, December.
    5. Bagnai, Alberto & Carlucci, Francesco, 2003. "An aggregate model for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 623-649, May.
    6. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Bagnai & Silvia Galli & Eleonora Pierucci & Simone Raimondi, 2004. "Narrowing the US twin deficits: simulations with a world macroeconometric model," International Trade 0411004, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2014. "The a/simmetrie annual macroeconometric model of the Italian economy: structure and properties," a/ Working Papers Series 1405, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    2. Alberto Bagnai & Silvia Galli & Eleonora Pierucci & Simone Raimondi, 2004. "Narrowing the US twin deficits: simulations with a world macroeconometric model," International Trade 0411004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dreger, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A macroeconometric model for the Euro economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-13.
    4. Marelli, Enrico, 1999. "Convergence and asymmetries in the employment dynamics of the European regions," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa120, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The nature of regional unemployment in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 877-895, December.
    6. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoit Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The Output Composition Puzzle: A Difference in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area and U.S," NBER Working Papers 9985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Zanetti, Francesco, 2011. "Labor market institutions and aggregate fluctuations in a search and matching model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 644-658, June.
    8. Sari Pekkala & Aki Kangasharju, 2002. "Regional Labour Market Adjustment: Are Positive and Negative Shocks Different?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 16(2), pages 267-286, June.
    9. Bagnai, Alberto & Carlucci, Francesco, 2003. "An aggregate model for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 623-649, May.
    10. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2014. "The impact of an exchange rate realignment on the trade balance: Euro vs. national currency - Some preliminary results with a/simmetrie model of the Italian economy," a/ Policy Briefs Series 1401, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    11. Bagnai, Alberto, 2009. "The role of China in global external imbalances: Some further evidence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 508-526, September.
    12. T. Berger & G. Everaert, 2006. "Re-examining the Structural and the Persistence Approach to Unemployment," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/383, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    13. Francesco Carlucci, 2011. "Un'analisi quantitativa delle politiche di rientro dal disavanzo pubblico in Italia," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 64(254), pages 135-175.
    14. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    15. Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 219-227, December.
    16. Monastiriotis, Vassilis & Tunali, Cigdem Borke, 2020. "The sustainability of external imbalances in the European periphery," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101540, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2017. "Modeling consumer confidence and its role for expectation formation: A horse race," Economics Working Papers 2017-04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    18. Peter Huber & Peter Mayerhofer & Helmut Hofer & Gerhard Palme, 2001. "Teilprojekt 9: Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung auf den österreichischen Arbeitsmarkt," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 19839, 12-2020.
    19. Zhuo Qiao & Keith Lam, 2011. "Granger causal relations among Greater China stock markets: a nonlinear perspective," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(19), pages 1437-1450.
    20. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2003. "Equity Indexing: Conitegration and Stock Price Dispersion: A Regime Switiching Approach to market Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometric model; simulation; structural change; European economy; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0206001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.