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Dynamic paths of the European economy: simulations using an EU aggregate model

Author

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  • Alberto Bagnai

    (University of Roma I)

  • Francesco Carlucci

    (University of Rome I)

Abstract

Using an aggregate econometric model for the EU we investigate by simulation methods some dynamic paths of the European economy in the next five years under alternative hypotheses concerning the growth of world demand, the European currency/USD exchange rate, and the monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Bagnai & Francesco Carlucci, 2002. "Dynamic paths of the European economy: simulations using an EU aggregate model," Econometrics 0206001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0206001 Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on IBM PC; to print on HP Laserjet; pages: 23; figures: included. PDF document submitted via upload form
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    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/em/papers/0206/0206001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-1357, September.
    3. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    4. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    5. Jeroen J. M. Kremers & Timothy D. Lane, 1990. "Economic and Monetary Integration and the Aggregate Demand for Money in the EMS," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(4), pages 777-805, December.
    6. Bagnai, Alberto & Carlucci, Francesco, 2003. "An aggregate model for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 623-649, May.
    7. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Bagnai & Silvia Galli & Eleonora Pierucci & Simone Raimondi, 2004. "Narrowing the US twin deficits: simulations with a world macroeconometric model," International Trade 0411004, EconWPA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometric model; simulation; structural change; European economy; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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