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Dynamic paths of the European economy: simulations using an EU aggregate model

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Bagnai

    (University of Roma I)

  • Francesco Carlucci

    (University of Rome I)

Abstract

Using an aggregate econometric model for the EU we investigate by simulation methods some dynamic paths of the European economy in the next five years under alternative hypotheses concerning the growth of world demand, the European currency/USD exchange rate, and the monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Bagnai & Francesco Carlucci, 2002. "Dynamic paths of the European economy: simulations using an EU aggregate model," Econometrics 0206001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0206001
    Note: Type of Document - PDF; prepared on IBM PC; to print on HP Laserjet; pages: 23; figures: included. PDF document submitted via upload form
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    2. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    3. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
    4. Bagnai, Alberto & Carlucci, Francesco, 2003. "An aggregate model for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 623-649, May.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-1357, September.
    6. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    7. Jeroen J. M. Kremers & Timothy D. Lane, 1990. "Economic and Monetary Integration and the Aggregate Demand for Money in the EMS," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(4), pages 777-805, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Bagnai & Silvia Galli & Eleonora Pierucci & Simone Raimondi, 2004. "Narrowing the US twin deficits: simulations with a world macroeconometric model," International Trade 0411004, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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