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Economía de Galicia tras el COVID-19: prospectiva de escenarios
[Economy of Galicia after COVID-covid-19: prospective forecastings]

Author

Listed:
  • González Laxe, Fernando
  • Da Rocha Alvarez, Jose Maria
  • Armesto Pina, José Francisco
  • Sanchez-Fernandez, Patricio
  • Lago-Peñas, Santiago

Abstract

This work estimates the impact of COVID-19 in the year 2020, drawing possible recovery scenarios in the medium term. For this purpose, two methodologies are combined: on the one hand, it anticipates the quarterly evolution throughout 2020 of the 30 branches of activity; on the other, scenario simulation is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model that anticipates the reaction of an economy to an exogenous shock. The results for the Galician economy show that the contraction in economic activity ranges between 8.5% of GDP in an optimistic scenario and 12.7% in a pessimistic one.

Suggested Citation

  • González Laxe, Fernando & Da Rocha Alvarez, Jose Maria & Armesto Pina, José Francisco & Sanchez-Fernandez, Patricio & Lago-Peñas, Santiago, 2020. "Economía de Galicia tras el COVID-19: prospectiva de escenarios [Economy of Galicia after COVID-covid-19: prospective forecastings]," MPRA Paper 100483, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:100483
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; economic impact; forecasting; GDP; Galicia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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