IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/esprep/233036.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Perturbed Nuptiality, Delayed Fertility: Childbirth Effects of Covid19

Author

Listed:
  • Mughal, Mazhar
  • Javed, Rashid

Abstract

An aspect of the Covid-19 pandemic that merits attention is its effects on marriage and childbirth. Although the direct fertility effects of people getting the virus may be minor, the impact of delayed marriages due to the first preventive lockdown, such as that imposed in Pakistan from March 14 to May 8 2020, and the closure of marriage halls that lasted till September 14 may be non-negligible. These demographic consequences are of particular import to developing countries such as Pakistan where birth rates remain high, marriage is nearly universal, and almost all child-bearing takes place within marriage. Based on historic marriage patterns, we estimate that the delay in nuptiality during the first wave of coronavirus outbreak may affect about half of the marriages that were to take place during the year. In Pakistan, childbearing begins soon after marriage, and about 37% of Pakistani married women give birth to their first child within twelve months of marriage. A sizeable number out of these around 400,000 annual births that occur within twelve months of the marriage may consequently be delayed. Postponement of marriages due to the accompanying difficult economic situation and employment precariousness should accentuate this fertility effect. The net fertility impact of the Covid-19 outbreak would ultimately depend not only on the delay in marriages but also on the reproductive behavior of existing couples.

Suggested Citation

  • Mughal, Mazhar & Javed, Rashid, 2021. "Perturbed Nuptiality, Delayed Fertility: Childbirth Effects of Covid19," EconStor Preprints 233036, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:233036
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/233036/1/Covid19-and-Marriage-Market.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal & Stephan Klasen, 2018. "Great Expectations? Remittances and Asset Accumulation in Pakistan," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 507-532, April.
    3. Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, June.
    4. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    5. Junaid Ahmed & Mazhar Mughal & Stephan Klasen, 2018. "Great Expectations? Remittances and Asset Accumulation in Pakistan," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 507-532, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alipio, Mark, 2020. "Education during COVID-19 era: Are learners in a less-economically developed country ready for e-learning?," EconStor Research Reports 216098, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Takahashi, Hidenori & Yamada, Kazuo, 2021. "When the Japanese stock market meets COVID-19: Impact of ownership, China and US exposure, and ESG channels," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Tiffany Chenneville & Kemesha Gabbidon & Patricia Hanson & Cashea Holyfield, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 on HIV Treatment and Research: A Call to Action," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-14, June.
    4. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu & Monnet, Nathalie & Ticku, Rohit, 2022. "Shutdown policies and conflict worldwide," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 240-255.
    5. Andre Assis de Salles, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic Initial Effects on the Idiosyncratic Risk in Latin America," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-21, Julio - S.
    6. Ivanaj, Ernest & Oukhallou, Youssef, 2020. "The Economic and Institutional Determinants of COVID-19 Mortality," MPRA Paper 103895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Beglaryan, Mane & Shakhmuradyan, Gayane, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on small and medium-sized enterprises in Armenia: Evidence from a labor force survey," Small Business International Review, Asociación Española de Contabilidad y Administración de Empresas - AECA, vol. 4(2), pages 298-298, September.
    8. Cindy Cheng & Joan Barcelo & Allison Spencer Hartnett & Robert Kubinec & Luca Messerschmidt, 2020. "CoronaNet: A Dyadic Dataset of Government Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 20200042, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Apr 2020.
    9. Mohammad Ghaderi, 2020. "Public Health Interventions in the Face of Pandemics: Network Structure, Social Distancing, and Heterogeneity," Working Papers 1193, Barcelona School of Economics.
    10. Giuli, Francesco & Maugeri, Gabriele, 2022. "Economic Effects of Covid-19 and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: applying a SEIRD-RBC Model to Italy," MPRA Paper 114673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Verónica Acurio Vásconez & Olivier Damette & David W. Shanafelt, 2021. "Macroepidemics and unconventional monetary policy: Coupling macroeconomics and epidemiology in a financial DSGE-SIR framework," Working Papers of BETA 2021-04, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    12. Ines Abdelkafi & Sahar Loukil & YossraBen Romdhane, 2023. "Economic Uncertainty During COVID-19 Pandemic in Latin America and Asia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 1582-1601, June.
    13. Lie, Denny, 2021. "Implications of state-dependent pricing for DSGE model-based policy analysis in Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 532-552.
    14. Enrico Berbenni & Stefano Colombo, 2021. "The impact of pandemics: revising the Spanish Flu in Italy in light of models’ predictions, and some lessons for the Covid-19 pandemic," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(2), pages 219-243, June.
    15. Rohitash Chandra & Yixuan He, 2021. "Bayesian neural networks for stock price forecasting before and during COVID-19 pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-32, July.
    16. Ghaderi, Mohammad, 2022. "Public health interventions in the face of pandemics: Network structure, social distancing, and heterogeneity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(3), pages 1016-1031.
    17. Vaijanath Babshetti & Jyothi E. Singh & Prakash B. Yaragol, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on the Socio-economic Indicators of the Selected Asian Countries," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 78(1), pages 28-46, March.
    18. Chin-Hsien Hsu & Hsiao-Hsien Lin & Chun-Chih Wang & Shangwun Jhang, 2020. "How to Defend COVID-19 in Taiwan? Talk about People’s Disease Awareness, Attitudes, Behaviors and the Impact of Physical and Mental Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-23, June.
    19. Stavros Kalogiannidis, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Human Resource Management Practices and Future Marketing," International Journal of Industrial Marketing, Macrothink Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 43-55, November.
    20. Baert, Stijn & Lippens, Louis & Moens, Eline & Sterkens, Philippe & Weytjens, Johannes, 2020. "How Do We Think the COVID-19 Crisis Will Affect Our Careers (If Any Remain)?," IZA Discussion Papers 13164, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; coronavirus; lockdown; marriage; childbirth; fertility; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:233036. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.