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The Real GDP Rate in European Union. A Panel Data Approach

Author

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  • Mihaela Simionescu

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The main aim of this article is to explain the evolution of real GDP rate in European Union (EU-28) over the period 2002-2013 using panel data sets. Several dynamic models (6 models) explained the real GDP growth, an increase in the real GDP rate in the previous period with 1% generating an increase in the real GDP rate in the current period with a value between 0.3% and 0.4%. A fixed effects model with individual effects and effects in time explained the real GDP growth using as explanatory variable the employment. Moreover, a panel data model is estimated, but the assumptions related to errors are not checked. Simulations are made for 2014 and 2015 using the dynamic model and the fixed effects model, the latter anticipating higher GDP rate than most of the dynamic models.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Simionescu, 2016. "The Real GDP Rate in European Union. A Panel Data Approach," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 161001, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:161001
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/RePEc/WorkingPapers/wpiecf161001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Ms. Hélène Poirson & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2004/015, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Nihat Taș & Ali Hepșen & Emrah Önder, 2013. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators of Economic Growth using Panel Data," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(3), pages 1-4.
    5. Menbere T. Workie, 2005. "Determinants of Growth and Convergence in Transitive Economies in the 1990s: Empirical Evidence from a Panel Data," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2005(3), pages 239-251.
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    Cited by:

    1. Harkat, Tahar, 2019. "The Impact of Natural Gas Consumption on Industry Value Added in the Mediterranean Region," MPRA Paper 92492, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP rate; dynamic model; fixed effects model; employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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