Foreign Capital and Investment in Pakistan: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis
Present study is focused to examine the effects of foreign capital flows on domestic investment in Pakistan economy for the period of 1972-2013. Time series econometric techniques like unit root test, Johansen cointegration and Granger causality methods have been used for the data analysis. Long run cointegration relationship has been found between domestic investment and foreign capital flow variables. Unidirectional causality running from external debt stock, remittances and domestic saving to domestic investment has been found. The causality between external debt servicing and investment is bidirectional. Bidirectional causality is also observed between foreign direct investment and domestic investment but causality between investment and inflation is confirmed in neither direction. The results are statistically robust and the estimated model is stable. The study suggests some policy recommendations.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:||28 Apr 2013|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research 4.4(2014): pp. 217-226|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Weisskopf, Thomas E., 1972. "The impact of foreign capital inflow on domestic savings in underdeveloped countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 25-38, February.
- Ahmad, Arslan & Ahmad, Najid & Ali, Sharafat, 2013. "Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Pakistan (1975-2011)," MPRA Paper 49395, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2013.
- Ali, Sharafat, 2014. "Inflation, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 53706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, July.
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- Krugman, Paul, 1988.
"Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
- Ali, Sharafat & Ahmad, Najid, 2013. "A Time Series Analysis of Foreign Aid and Income Inequality in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 48877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Mohey-ud-din, Ghulam, 2006.
"Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows (FCI) on Economic Growth in Pakistan [1975-2004],"
1233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ghulam Mohey-ud-din, 2007. "Impact of FCI on Economic Growth in Pakistan," Journal of Independent Studies and Research (JISR), Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology (SZABIST), vol. 5(1), pages 24-29, January.
- Laurent Gheeraert & Ritha Sukadi Mata & Daniel Traca, 2010. "Remittances and Domestic Investment in Developing Countries: An Analysis of the Role of Financial Sector Development," Working Papers CEB 10-013.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Ali, Sharafat, 2013. "The Small and Medium Enterprises and Poverty in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 50506, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2113.
- Shahbaz Nasir & Mahmood Khalid, 2004. "Saving-investment Behaviour in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 665-682.
- Boone, Peter, 1996. "Politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 289-329, February.
- Tito Cordella & Luca Antonio Ricci & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2005. "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt-Growth Link," IMF Working Papers 05/223, International Monetary Fund.
- Mohammad Afzal, 2007. "Savings and investment in developing countries : Granger causality test," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 44(2), pages 99-110, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Jeffrey Sachs, 1986. "Managing the LDC Debt Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(2), pages 397-440.
- Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Low Investment and Large LDC Debt in the 1980's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 437-49, June.
- World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6014.
- Ali, Sharafat, 2013. "A Cointegration Approach to Estimate Private Investment Demand Function of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 49595, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Sep 2113.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55640. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.