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Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems

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  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Andreas Pick
  • Allan Timmermann

Abstract

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a first-order concern, i.e. in small samples and for long forecast horizons. Conversely, direct forecasts may dominate in the presence of dynamic model misspecification. Empirical analysis of the set of 170 variables studied by Marcellino, Stock and Watson (2006) shows that multivariate information, introduced through a parsimonious factor-augmented vector autoregression approach, improves forecasting performance for many variables, particularly at short horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-period Forecasting Problems," CESifo Working Paper Series 2543, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2543
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 183-217.
    2. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
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    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
    7. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1979. "The sampling distribution of forecasts from a first-order autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 241-261, February.
    8. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, October.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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