Modelling and forecasting wind speed intensity for weather risk management
The modelling of wind speed is a traditional topic in meteorological research, where the main interest is on the short-term forecast of wind speed intensity and direction. More recently, this theme has received some interest in the quantitative finance literature for its relationship with electricity production by wind farms. In fact, electricity producers are interested in long-range forecasts and simulation of wind speed for two main reasons: to evaluate the profitability of building a wind farm in a given location and to offset the risks associated with the variability of wind speed for an already operating wind farm. In this paper, we contribute to the increasing literature regarding environmental finance by comparing three approaches that are capable of forecasting and simulating the long run evolution of wind speed intensity (direction is not a concern, given that the recent turbines can rotate to follow wind direction): the Auto Regressive Gamma process, the Gamma Auto Regressive process, and the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model. We provide both in-sample and out-of-sample comparisons of the models, as well as some examples for the pricing of wind speed derivatives using a model-based Monte Carlo simulation approach.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +39 +49 8274210
Fax: +39 +49 827.4211
Web page: http://www.decon.unipd.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Massimiliano Caporin & Juliusz Pres, 2008. "Forecasting temperature indices with timevarying long-memory models," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0088, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- M. Davis, 2001. "Pricing weather derivatives by marginal value," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 305-308.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Allen, David & Lazarov, Zdravetz & McAleer, Michael & Peiris, Shelton, 2009. "Comparison of alternative ACD models via density and interval forecasts: Evidence from the Australian stock market," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 2535-2555.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521843713 is not listed on IDEAS
- BEINE, Michel & LAURENT, Sébastien, .
"Central bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
-1706, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sebastien, 2003. "Central bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 641-660, December.
- Michel Beine & Sébastien Laurent, 2003. "Central Bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10435, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
- Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2003.
"Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives,"
NBER Working Papers
10141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-42, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Campbell, Sean D. & Diebold, Francis X., 2004. "Weather forecasting for weather derivatives," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Gianni Amisano & Raffaella Giacomini, 2005.
"Comparing Density Forecsts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests,"
ubs0504, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
- Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
- Joann Jasiak & Christian Gourieroux, 2006. "Autoregressive gamma processes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 129-152.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Moller, Jan Kloppenborg & Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg & Madsen, Henrik, 2008. "Time-adaptive quantile regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 1292-1303, January.
- Roy, Roch & Saidi, Abdessamad, 2008. "Aggregation and systematic sampling of periodic ARMA processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(9), pages 4287-4304, May.
- Maria Pacurar, 2008. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models In Finance: A Survey Of The Theoretical And Empirical Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 711-751, 09.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Raffaele Dei Campielisi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.