Evaluating models of autoregressive conditional duration
This paper contains two novelties. First, a unified framework for testing and evaluating the adequacy of an estimated autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model is presented. Second, two new classes of ACD models, the smooth transition ACD model and the time-varying ACD model, are introduced and their properties discussed. A number of new misspecification tests for the ACD class of models are introduced. They are Lagrange multiplier and Lagrange multiplier type tests against general forms of additive and multiplicative misspecification of the conditional mean function. These forms include tests against higher-order models, tests of no remaining ACD in the standardized durations, as well as tests of linearity and parameter constancy. In addition to its generality, the advantage of this testing approach is its ease of application, since all the resulting asymptotic null distributions are standard. The finite sample properties of the tests are investigated by simulation. A general observation is that the tests are well-sized and have good power. Versions of the test statistics robust to deviations from distributional assumptions other than those being explicitly tested are also given. The smooth transition and time-varying ACD models are introduced, their main properties are examined, and they serve as alternatives in the tests of linearity and parameter constancy. Finally, the tests are applied to ACD models of the IBM stock traded at the New York Stock Exchange.
|Date of creation:||08 Mar 2004|
|Date of revision:||13 Dec 2004|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2006, pages 104-124.|
|Note:||The published version can be obtained through the official journal website: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: The Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden|
Phone: +46-(0)8-736 90 00
Fax: +46-(0)8-31 01 57
Web page: http://www.hhs.se/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Drost, Feike C & Werker, Bas J M, 2004.
"Semiparametric Duration Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 40-50, January.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:1:p:17-43 is not listed on IDEAS
- Joachim Grammig & Kai-Oliver Maurer, 2000. "Non-monotonic hazard functions and the autoregressive conditional duration model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 16-38.
- Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig & David Veredas, 2000.
"A Comparison of Financial Duration Models via Density Forecasts,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0810, Econometric Society.
- Bauwens, Luc & Giot, Pierre & Grammig, Joachim & Veredas, David, 2004. "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 589-609.
- BAUWENS, Luc & GIOT, Pierre & GRAMMIG, Joachim & VEREDAS, David, . "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecasts," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1746, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig & David Veredas, 2004. "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecast," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136218, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- BAUWENS , Luc & GIOT, Pierre & GRAMMIG, Joachim & VEREDAS, David, 2000. "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecasts," CORE Discussion Papers 2000060, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Stefan Lundbergh & Timo Teräsvirta, 1999.
"Evaluating GARCH Models,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
99-008/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Evaluating GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 292, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 03 May 1999.
- Drost, F.C. & Werker, B.J.M., 2004. "Semiparametric duration models," Other publications TiSEM a1895e3e-f720-454b-9613-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Fernandes, Marcelo & Grammig, Joachim, 2003.
"Nonparametric specification tests for conditional duration models,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
502, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Fernandes, Marcelo & Grammig, Joachim, 2005. "Nonparametric specification tests for conditional duration models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 35-68, July.
- Fernandes, M. & Grammig, J., 2000. "Non-Parametric Specification Tests for Conditional Duration Models," Economics Working Papers eco2000/4, European University Institute.
- Marcelo Fernandes & Joachim Grammig, 2000. "Non-Parametric Specification Tests For Conditional Duration Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 40, Society for Computational Economics.
- Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1981.
"Pseudo maximum likelihood methods : theory,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Bierens, H.J., 1989.
"A consistent conditional moment test of functional form,"
Serie Research Memoranda
0064, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Bierens, Herman J, 1990. "A Consistent Conditional Moment Test of Functional Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1443-58, November.
- Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
- Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Tom Doan, . "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1990. "A Unified Approach to Robust, Regression-Based Specification Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 17-43, March.
- Hong, Yongmiao & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 2003. "Diagnostic Checking For The Adequacy Of Nonlinear Time Series Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 1065-1121, December.
- Newey, Whitney K, 1985. "Maximum Likelihood Specification Testing and Conditional Moment Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 1047-70, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0557. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helena Lundin)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.