Model based Monte Carlo pricing of energy and temperature Quanto options
Weather derivatives have become very popular tools in weather risk management in recent years. One of the elements supporting their diffusion has been the increase in volatility observed on many energy markets. Among the several available contracts, Quanto options are now becoming very popular for a simple reason: they take into account the strong correlation between energy consumption and certain weather conditions, so enabling price and weather risk to be controlled at the same time. These products are more efficient and, in many cases, significantly cheaper than simpler plain vanilla options. Unfortunately, the specific features of energy and weather time series do not enable the use of analytical formulae based on the Black-Scholes pricing approach, nor other more advanced continuous time methods that extend the Black-Scholes approach, unless under strong and unrealistic assumptions. In this study, we propose a Monte Carlo pricing framework based on a bivariate time series model. Our approach takes into account the average and variance interdependence between temperature and energy price series. Furthermore, our approach includes other relevant empirical features, such as periodic patterns in average, variance, and correlations. The model structure enables a more appropriate pricing of Quanto options compared to traditional methods.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- T. S. Ho & Richard C. Stapleton & Marti G. Subrahmanyam, 1995. "Correlation risk, cross-market derivative products and portfolio performance," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 1(2), pages 105-124.
- Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. " Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-76, July.
- Alvaro Escribano & Juan Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2002.
"Modeling Electricity Prices: International Evidence,"
Economics Working Papers
we022708, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
- Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
- Christodoulakis, George A. & Satchell, Stephen E., 2002. "Correlated ARCH (CorrARCH): Modelling the time-varying conditional correlation between financial asset returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 351-370, June.
- Silvano Bordignon & Massimiliano Caporin & Francesco Lisi, 2009. "Periodic Long-Memory GARCH Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1-3), pages 60-82.
- Pirrong, Craig & Jermakyan, Martin, 2008. "The price of power: The valuation of power and weather derivatives," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2520-2529, December.
- BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003.
"Multivariate GARCH models: a survey,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2003031, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1982. "An Equilibrium Model of Bond Pricing and a Test of Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(03), pages 301-329, September.
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- M. Davis, 2001. "Pricing weather derivatives by marginal value," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 305-308.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Marius Ooms & M. Angeles Carnero & Siem Jan Koopman, 2004. "Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA models for daily electricity spot prices," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 158, Econometric Society.
- Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
- Bordignon, Silvano & Caporin, Massimiliano & Lisi, Francesco, 2007. "Generalised long-memory GARCH models for intra-daily volatility," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(12), pages 5900-5912, August.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996.
"Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Baillie, Bollerslev, Mikkelson FIGARCH results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00009, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Fred ESPEN Benth & Jurate saltyte Benth, 2007. "The volatility of temperature and pricing of weather derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 553-561.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:5:p:1700-1712. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.