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The Value of Protecting Venice from the Acqua Alta Phenomenon under Different Local Sea Level Rises

Author

Listed:
  • Caporin, Massimiliano
  • Fontini, Fulvio

Abstract

Venice (Italy) is built on several islands inside a lagoon. It undergoes a periodical �ooding phenomenon, called "Acqua Alta" (AA). A system of mobile dams, called Mo.S.E., is currently under construction to protect it. When needed, several fl�oodgates will be lifted to separate the lagoon from the Adriatic sea. AA, whose length and height has been increasing in recent years, is a random phenomenon, correlated with local sea level rise (LSLR). Several possible LSLRs can be assumed as consequences of different global warming scenarios. We investigate here the cost-bene�t of Mo.S.E. under different possible LSLRs. First, we simulate the future patterns of AA for the next 50 years under alternative LSLRs. Then, we calculate the bene�t of Mo.S.E., converting each avoided AA episode into an economic value (avoided cost). We show that the bene�ts are just at the level of the costs, when a low LSLR is assumed and increase with LSLR, provided that it does not reache a catastrophic (yet unpredictable) extreme level.

Suggested Citation

  • Caporin, Massimiliano & Fontini, Fulvio, 2014. "The Value of Protecting Venice from the Acqua Alta Phenomenon under Different Local Sea Level Rises," MPRA Paper 53779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53779
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    2. Caporin, Massimiliano & Preś, Juliusz, 2012. "Modelling and forecasting wind speed intensity for weather risk management," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3459-3476.
    3. Fontini, Fulvio & Umgiesser, Georg & Vergano, Lucia, 2010. "The role of ambiguity in the evaluation of the net benefits of the MOSE system in the Venice lagoon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 1964-1972, August.
    4. Massimiliano Caporin & Juliusz Preś, 2013. "Forecasting Temperature Indices Density with Time‐Varying Long‐Memory Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 339-352, July.
    5. Lucia Vergano & Georg Umgiesser & Paulo A.L.D. Nunes, 2010. "An Economic Assessment of the Impacts of the MOSE Barriers on Venice Port Activities," Working Papers 2010.17, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "Brazil, Preservation of Forest and Biodiversity," MPRA Paper 71462, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cost-benefit; Acqua Alta; Tide level simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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