Stock Market Volatility And The Forecasting Accuracy Of Implied Volatility Indices
This study develops a new model-free benchmark of implied volatility for the Japanese stock market similar in construction to the new VIX based on the S&P 500 index. It also examines the stochastic dynamics of the implied volatility index and its relationship with realized volatility in both markets. There is evidence that implied volatility is governed by a long-memory process. Despite its upward bias, implied volatility is more reflective of changes in realized volatility than alternative GARCH models, which account for volatility persistence and the asymmetric impact of news. The implied volatility index is also found to be inclusive of some but not all information on future volatility contained in historical returns. However, its higher out-of sample performance provides further support to the rationale behind drawing inference about future stock market volatility based on the incremental information contained in options prices.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www2.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/global/e_HP/e_g_shiryo.html|
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- Amin, Kaushik I & Ng, Victor K, 1997. "Inferring Future Volatility from the Information in Implied Volatility in Eurodollar Options: A New Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 333-67.
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CRSP working papers
332, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
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- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 5351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ball, Clifford A. & Roma, Antonio, 1994. "Stochastic Volatility Option Pricing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(04), pages 589-607, December.
- Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
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- Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-81.
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