Are Volatility Expectations Characterized By Regime Shifts? Evidence From Implied Volatility Indices
This paper examines nonlinearities in the dynamics of volatility expectations using benchmarks of implied volatility for the US and Japanese markets. The evidence from Markov regime-switching models suggests that volatility expectations are likely to be governed by regimes featuring a long memory process and significant leverage effects. Market volatility is expected to increase in bear periods and decrease in bull periods. Leverage effects constitute thus an important source of nonlinearities in volatility expectations. There is no evidence of long swings associated with financial crises, which do not have the potential of shifting volatility expectations from one regime to another for long protracted periods.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www2.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/global/e_HP/e_g_shiryo.html|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 499-547, 04.
- Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, "undated". "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," CRSP working papers 332, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 5351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April.
- Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-681.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
- Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)