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Market turbulence and investor decision-making in currency option market

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  • Dammak, Wael
  • Frikha, Wajdi
  • Souissi, Mohamed Naceur

Abstract

This research delves into the effects of recent crises on investor behavior within the currency options market, particularly focusing on the relationship with underlying exchange rates. Analyzing daily EUR/USD currency call pair data from May 4, 2011, to June 19, 2023, we employ a genetic algorithm to calculate stochastic volatility in line with the Garman and Kohlhagen model. Through the application of the STAR model, we identified shifts in investor behavior across various crisis periods. These shifts are linked to inherent asymmetries in the time series data, illustrating the diverse strategies of different investor types, such as fundamentalists and chartists. Our findings reveal how each investor group tailors its approach to these market asymmetries, showcasing distinct strategies and responses to fluctuating market conditions and crises. This study contributes to the financial literature by offering a more nuanced understanding of how crises influence investor behavior and the dynamics of currency markets. Ultimately, it sheds light on the complexities of investor behavior during economic challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Dammak, Wael & Frikha, Wajdi & Souissi, Mohamed Naceur, 2024. "Market turbulence and investor decision-making in currency option market," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:30:y:2024:i:c:s1703494924000227
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00373
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor behavior; Market turbulence; Currency option market; STAR model; Genetic algorithm; Fundamentalists & chartists;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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