IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurase/v14y2024i2d10.1007_s40822-023-00254-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic spillovers between natural gas and BRICS stock markets during health and political crises

Author

Listed:
  • Mellouli Dhoha

    (High Business School of Sfax)

  • Wael Dammak

    (University of Lyon, University Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Institute of Financial and Insurance Sciences, LSAF-EA2429)

  • Hind Alnafisah

    (Princess Nourah Bint Abdulrahman University)

  • Ahmed Jeribi

    (University of Monastir)

Abstract

Previous research has primarily focused on external factors to refine predictions of natural gas volatility, a prominent cleaner fossil fuel. Yet, there's a gap in the literature regarding the intrinsic factors impacting the volatility of natural gas returns, especially during crises. Using the TVP-VAR frequency connectedness method, we uncover a pronounced dynamic integration and return transmission between natural gas and BRICS stock markets. Our findings emphasize a strong interconnectedness in both the lower and upper extremes of the return distribution, indicating the profound effects of both negative and positive extreme shocks. We also document symmetric spillover effects in tumultuous market conditions. Short-term spillovers are critical in transmitting shocks, while long-term ones define interconnectedness patterns. Notably, we identify assets that are net-receivers and net-transmitters, with natural gas consistently being a net receiver. Our results provide valuable insights for investors and portfolio managers, emphasizing the need for stringent risk management during crises like COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict due to the presence of non-diversifiable systematic risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mellouli Dhoha & Wael Dammak & Hind Alnafisah & Ahmed Jeribi, 2024. "Dynamic spillovers between natural gas and BRICS stock markets during health and political crises," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(2), pages 453-485, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:14:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s40822-023-00254-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s40822-023-00254-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40822-023-00254-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40822-023-00254-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Yusin, 2017. "Interdependence, issue importance, and the 2009 Russia-Ukraine gas conflict," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 199-209.
    2. Achraf Ghorbel & Ahmed Jeribi, 2021. "Volatility spillovers and contagion between energy sector and financial assets during COVID-19 crisis period," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 449-467, September.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    4. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2021. "Interest rate swaps and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: A quantile connectedness approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    5. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Haoyang & Zhang, Xinhua, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects and portfolio strategies between crude oil, gold and Chinese stock markets related to new energy vehicle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Stiassny, Alfred, 1996. "A Spectral Decomposition for Structural VAR Models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 535-555.
    7. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2020. "Commodity price volatility and the economic uncertainty of pandemics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    8. Xu, Yingying & Lien, Donald, 2022. "COVID-19 and currency dependences: Empirical evidence from BRICS," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    9. Berna Aydogan, 2017. "Sentiment dynamics and volatility of international stock markets," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 407-419, December.
    10. Ali, Mohsin & Alam, Nafis & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2020. "Coronavirus (COVID-19) — An epidemic or pandemic for financial markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    11. Huang, Menghao & Shao, Wei & Wang, Jian, 2023. "Correlations between the crude oil market and capital markets under the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A perspective of crude oil importing and exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Roudari, Soheil & Sadeghi, Abdorasoul & Gholami, Samad & Mensi, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2023. "Dynamic spillovers among natural gas, liquid natural gas, trade policy uncertainty, and stock market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    14. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    15. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk and dependence structure between oil and stock markets using a variational mode decomposition-based copula method," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 258-279.
    16. Katerina Aristodemou & Lucas Buchhass & Duco Claringbould, 2021. "The COVID-19 crisis in the EU: the resilience of healthcare systems, government responses and their socio-economic effects," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 251-281, June.
    17. Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Roubaud, David, 2021. "Quantile connectedness in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    19. Mariem Gaies & Walid Chkili, 2023. "Dynamic correlation and hedging strategy between Bitcoin prices and stock market during the Russo-Ukrainian war," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(2), pages 307-319, June.
    20. Yanbin Li & Dan Nie & Bingkang Li & Xiyu Li, 2020. "The Spillover Effect between Carbon Emission Trading (CET) Price and Power Company Stock Price in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-17, August.
    21. Cao, Guangxi & Xie, Wenhao, 2022. "Asymmetric dynamic spillover effect between cryptocurrency and China's financial market: Evidence from TVP-VAR based connectedness approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    22. Wang, Min & Su, Yuquan, 2023. "How Russian-Ukrainian geopolitical risks affect Chinese commodity and financial markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    23. Zhang, Hua & Chen, Jinyu & Shao, Liuguo, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers between energy and stock markets and their implications in the context of COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    24. Mishra, Aswini Kumar & Arunachalam, Vairam & Olson, Dennis & Patnaik, Debasis, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness in commodity futures markets during Covid-19 in India: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    25. Azqueta-Gavaldon, Andres & Hirschbühl, Dominik & Onorante, Luca & Saiz, Lorena, 2020. "Nowcasting business cycle turning points with stock networks and machine learning," Working Paper Series 2494, European Central Bank.
    26. Wajdi Frikha & Mariem Brahim & Ahmed Jeribi & Amine Lahiani, 2023. "COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine war and interconnectedness between stock and crypto markets: a wavelet-based analysis," Journal of Business Analytics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 255-275, October.
    27. Dammak, Wael & Hamad, Salah Ben & de Peretti, Christian & Eleuch, Hichem, 2023. "Pricing of European currency options considering the dynamic information costs," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    28. Jozef Baruník & Tomáš Křehlík, 2018. "Measuring the Frequency Dynamics of Financial Connectedness and Systemic Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 271-296.
    29. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July.
    30. Ahmed Bossman & Mariya Gubareva & Tamara Teplova, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, market sentiment, and regional stocks: asymmetric analyses of the EU sectors," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(3), pages 321-372, December.
    31. Huang, Jianbai & Dong, Xuesong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhong, Meirui, 2022. "Do oil prices and economic policy uncertainty matter for precious metal returns? New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 433-445.
    32. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2022. "Does oil connect differently with prominent assets during war? Analysis of intra-day data during the Russia-Ukraine saga," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    33. Wael Dammak & Salah Ben Hamad & Christian de Peretti & Hichem Eleuch, 2023. "Pricing of European currency options considering the dynamic information costs," Post-Print hal-04875463, HAL.
    34. Chang, Hao-Wen & Chang, Tsangyao & Ling, Yuan Hung & Yang, Yung-Lieh, 2023. "Dynamical linkages between the Brent oil price and stock markets in BRICS using quantile connectedness approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    35. Li, Jingpeng & Umar, Muhammad & Huo, Jiale, 2023. "The spillover effect between Chinese crude oil futures market and Chinese green energy stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    36. Dammak, Wael & Boutouria, Nahla & Ben Hamad, Salah & de Peretti, Christian, 2023. "Investor behavior in the currency option market during the COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    37. Younis, Ijaz & Shah, Waheed Ullah & Yousaf, Imran, 2023. "Static and dynamic linkages between oil, gold and global equity markets in various crisis episodes: Evidence from the Wavelet TVP-VAR," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    38. Tomohiro Ando & Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Yongcheol Shin, 2022. "Quantile Connectedness: Modeling Tail Behavior in the Topology of Financial Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 2401-2431, April.
    39. Hasan Fehmi Baklaci & Tezer Yelkenci, 2022. "Cross-time-frequency analysis of volatility linkages in global currency markets: an extended framework," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(2), pages 267-314, June.
    40. Karamti, Chiraz & Jeribi, Ahmed, 2023. "Stock markets from COVID-19 to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Structural breaks in interactive effects panels," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    41. Salisu, Afees A. & Swaray, Raymond & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2019. "Improving the predictability of the oil–US stock nexus: The role of macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 153-171.
    42. Gidea, Marian & Goldsmith, Daniel & Katz, Yuri & Roldan, Pablo & Shmalo, Yonah, 2020. "Topological recognition of critical transitions in time series of cryptocurrencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 548(C).
    43. Pan, Yuling & Dong, Feng, 2023. "Factor substitution and development path of the new energy market in the BRICS countries under carbon neutrality: Inspirations from developed European countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    44. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    45. Wael Dammak & Nahla Boutouria & Salah Ben Hamad & Christian de Peretti, 2023. "Investor behavior in the currency option market during the COVID-19 pandemic," Post-Print hal-04875460, HAL.
    46. Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resources prices: Evidence from the hybrid TVP-VAR model with large system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    47. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    48. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    49. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    50. Ding, Lili & Zhao, Zhongchao & Han, Meng, 2021. "Probability density forecasts for steam coal prices in China: The role of high-frequency factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    51. Huang, Jionghao & Chen, Baifan & Xu, Yushi & Xia, Xiaohua, 2023. "Time-frequency volatility transmission among energy commodities and financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: A Novel TVP-VAR frequency connectedness approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    52. Boubaker, Heni & Raza, Syed Ali, 2017. "A wavelet analysis of mean and volatility spillovers between oil and BRICS stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 105-117.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhattacherjee, Purba & Mishra, Sibanjan & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Extreme time-frequency connectedness across U.S. sector stock and commodity futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 1176-1197.
    2. Kočenda, Evžen & Moravcová, Michala, 2024. "Frequency volatility connectedness and portfolio hedging of U.S. energy commodities," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Le, Trung H. & Pham, Linh & Do, Hung X., 2023. "Price risk transmissions in the water-energy-food nexus: Impacts of climate risks and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Zhou, Xiaoran & Enilov, Martin & Parhi, Mamata, 2024. "Does oil spin the commodity wheel? Quantile connectedness with a common factor error structure across energy and agricultural markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Hu, Yang & Lang, Chunlin & Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Oxley, Les, 2023. "Exploring the dynamic behaviour of commodity market tail risk connectedness during the negative WTI pricing event," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Cocca, Teodoro & Gabauer, David & Pomberger, Stefan, 2024. "Clean energy market connectedness and investment strategies: New evidence from DCC-GARCH R2 decomposed connectedness measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Biswas, Priti & Jain, Prachi & Maitra, Debasish, 2024. "Are shocks in the stock markets driven by commodity markets? Evidence from Russia-Ukraine war," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    8. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Brahim, Mariem & Carlotti, Jean-Etienne & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mensi, Walid, 2024. "Extreme downside risk connectedness and portfolio hedging among the G10 currencies," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    9. Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Bouri, Elie & Abuzayed, Bana, 2023. "Decomposed oil price shocks and GCC stock market sector returns and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Stenfors, Alexis & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2022. "Independent policy, dependent outcomes: A game of cross-country dominoes across European yield curves," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    12. Chen, Huayi & Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2024. "Carbon volatility connectedness and the role of external uncertainties: Evidence from China," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    13. Le, Thanh Ha, 2023. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness between cryptocurrency volatility and renewable energy volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic and Ukraine-Russia conflicts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 613-625.
    14. Sahoo, Satyaban, 2024. "Harmony in diversity: Exploring connectedness and portfolio strategies among crude oil, gold, traditional and sustainable index," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    15. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Karim, Sitara, 2024. "Measuring the G20 stock market return transmission mechanism: Evidence from the R2 connectedness approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    16. Hanif, Waqas & Hadhri, Sinda & El Khoury, Rim, 2024. "Quantile spillovers and connectedness between oil shocks and stock markets of the largest oil producers and consumers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    17. Mensi, Walid & Ahmadian-Yazdi, Farzaneh & Al-Kharusi, Sami & Roudari, Soheil & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Extreme Connectedness Across Chinese Stock and Commodity Futures Markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    18. Shang, Jin & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2024. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness analysis between crude oil, gold, financial markets, and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from the US and EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    19. Jian, Zhihong & Lu, Haisong & Zhu, Zhican & Xu, Huiling, 2023. "Frequency heterogeneity of tail connectedness: Evidence from global stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    20. Iqbal, Najaf & Umar, Zaghum & Ruman, Asif M. & Jiang, Shaohua, 2024. "The term structure of yield curve and connectedness among ESG investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 pandemic; TVP-VAR; Russian–Ukrainian conflict; BRICS; Natural gas; Connectedness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:14:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s40822-023-00254-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.