A Multi-Horizon Comparison Of Volatility Forecasts: An Application To Stock Options Traded At Euronext Exchange Amsterdam
In this paper we analyze the volatility of the 3 most traded stock options at NYSE Euronext Exchange Amsterdam, between January 2009 and May 2011, in order to identify the best models that explain the evolution of options volatility. Based on the analysis of the phenomena, we determine models that describe the evolution of the volatility and with these models we realize forecasts. We used classical models, such as EWMA, but also modern ones represented by heteroscedastic models. Forecasted values are then compared with the real ones. By calculating the differences, we determine the forecast errors, based on which we identify models that provide the most accurate forecasts and models that provide the worst forecasts.
Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): 10 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Universitatea Al. I. Cuza; B-dul Carol I nr. 22; Iasi|
Phone: 004 0232 201070
Fax: 004 0232 217000
Web page: http://rebs.ro/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mills,Terence C. & Markellos,Raphael N., 2008. "The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521710091, December.
- Mills,Terence C. & Markellos,Raphael N., 2008. "The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521883818, December.
- Amin, Kaushik I & Ng, Victor K, 1997. "Inferring Future Volatility from the Information in Implied Volatility in Eurodollar Options: A New Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 333-367.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
- Granger,Clive W. J., 1999.
"Empirical Modeling in Economics,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662086, December.
- Taylor, James W., 2004. "Volatility forecasting with smooth transition exponential smoothing," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 273-286.
- Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
- Taylor, Stephen J., 1987. "Forecasting the volatility of currency exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 159-170.
- Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Labys, Paul, 2002.
"Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility,"
02-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," NBER Working Papers 8160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Ederington, Louis & Guan, Wei, 2005. "The information frown in option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1429-1457, June.
- Geoffrey F. Loudon & Wing H. Watt & Pradeep K. Yadav, 2000. "An empirical analysis of alternative parametric ARCH models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 117-136.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326.
- Jun Yu, 2002.
"Forecasting volatility in the New Zealand stock market,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 193-202.
- Yu, Jun, 1999. "Forecasting Volatility in the New Zealand Stock Market," Working Papers 175, Department of Economics, The University of Auckland.
- Beckers, Stan, 1981. "Standard deviations implied in option prices as predictors of future stock price variability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 363-381, September.
- Dimson, Elroy & Marsh, Paul, 1990. "Volatility forecasting without data-snooping," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2-3), pages 399-421, August.
- Brailsford, Timothy J. & Faff, Robert W., 1996. "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 419-438, April.
- Awartani, Basel M.A. & Corradi, Valentina, 2005. "Predicting the volatility of the S&P-500 stock index via GARCH models: the role of asymmetries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 167-183.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aic:revebs:y:2012:i:10:asanduluim. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sireteanu Napoleon-Alexandru)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.