IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Reaching the planners: Generating detailed commodity Forecasts from a computable general equilibrium model

  • Philip D. Adams
  • Peter B.Dixon

The largest computable general equilibrium (CGE) models currently in operation produce forecasts for about 100 commodities (goods and services). This level of detail may seem overwhelming to macroeconomists, but is often inadequate for micro planning. For example, a forecast for business services (a typical commodity at the 100-level) is of marginal interest in planning educational programs for sub-categories of business services such as accountancy, advertising and architecture. As a step towards generating information for micro planning, this paper describes a top-down method for disaggregating CGE forecasts. The method relies on detailed sales data often collected by input-output sections of statistical agencies. An application is reported in which forecasts from a 114-commodity CGE model are disaggregated into forecasts for 780 commodities. Within each of the 114 core commodities, differences in prospects are forecast for sub-commodities reflecting differences in their sales patterns and in the degree to which they face import competition.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.copsmodels.com/ftp/workpapr/op-83.pdf
File Function: Initial version, 1996-03
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.copsmodels.com/elecpapr/op-83.htm
File Function: Local abstract: may link to additional material.
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre in its series Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers with number op-83.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Mar 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:op-83
Contact details of provider: Postal: PO Box 14428, Melbourne, Victoria, 8001
Phone: 03 9919 1877
Web page: http://www.copsmodels.com/about.htm

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1.
  2. Alan A. Powell & Richard H. Snape, 1992. "The Contribution of Applied General Equilibrium Analysis to Policy Reform in Australia," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-98, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  3. Robinson, Sherman, 1991. "Macroeconomics, financial variables, and computable general equilibrium models," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(11), pages 1509-1525, November.
  4. Pereira, Alfredo M. & Shoven, John B., 1988. "Survey of dynamic computational general equilibrium models for tax policy evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 401-436.
  5. Bandara, Jayatilleke S, 1991. " Computable General Equilibrium Models for Development Policy Analysis in LDCs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 3-69.
  6. Adams, Philip D. & Dixon, Peter B. & McDonald, Daina & Meagher, G. A. & Parmenter, Brian R., 1994. "Forecasts for the Australian economy using the MONASH model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 557-571, December.
  7. Robinson, Sherman, 1989. "Multisectoral models," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 885-947 Elsevier.
  8. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-51, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:op-83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Horridge)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.