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Um modelo computável de equilíbrio geral para planejamento e análise de políticas agrícolas (PAPA) na economia brasileira
[A computable general equilibrium model for planning and analysis of agricultural policies (PAPA) in the Brazilian economy]


  • Guilhoto, Joaquim J.M.


This work describes a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Planning and Analysis of Agricultural Policies (PAPA) in the Brazilian economy. The PAPA model is a Computable model of the Johansen type and the solutions of the model are given in growth rates. This model is based on the ORANI model constructed for the Australian economy and in that sense it is a general purpose model that can be used to study the impact of agricultural policies not only on the agricultural sector, but also in the other economic sectors, in such way, it is also possible to study the impact of non-agricultural policies on the agricultural sector. The model is defined for: a) 33 types of industrieslcommodities; b) 3 types of primary factors (labor, fixed capital, and agricultural land); c) 3 categories of labor (workers who receive: between 0 and 5 minimum wages; between 5 and 20 minimum wages; and more than 20 minimum wages); d) 2 sources of products (domestic, and imported); e) 5 types of product use (inputs to current production, inputs to capital formation, commodity flows to household consumption, exports, government and other demands); and, f) 3 income groups (between 0 and 5 minimum wages; between 5 and 20 minimum wages; and more than 20 minimum wages). The model also presents a detailed specification for trade margins and taxes. The basic input-output data used in the model refers to the 1980 input-output matrices for the Brazilian economy. To illustrate the versatility and power of analysis of the PAPA model, this work presents the result of five simulations with the model: a) overall increase of 25% in the tariffs; b) increase of 10% in the aggregate expenditure of households in each income group; c) increase of 10% in the international price of coffee; d) increase of 10% in the exports of selected agricultural 1 agroindustrial sectors; e e) elimination of subsidies in the wheat sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Guilhoto, Joaquim J.M., 1995. "Um modelo computável de equilíbrio geral para planejamento e análise de políticas agrícolas (PAPA) na economia brasileira
    [A computable general equilibrium model for planning and analysis of agricu
    ," MPRA Paper 42349, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42349

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    1. repec:sbe:breart:v:4:y:1984:i:1:a:3145 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Cella, Guido, 1984. "The Input-Output Measurement of Interindustry Linkages," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(1), pages 73-84, February.
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    4. Cooper, Russel J & McLaren, Keith R, 1983. "The ORANI-MACRO Interface: An Illustrative Exposition," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(165), pages 166-179, June.
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    7. Pereira, Alfredo M. & Shoven, John B., 1988. "Survey of dynamic computational general equilibrium models for tax policy evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 401-436.
    8. Clements, Benedict J., 1990. "On the decomposition and normalization of interindustry linkages," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 337-340, August.
    9. Decaluwe, Bernard & Martens, Andre, 1988. "CGE modeling and developing economies: A concise empirical survey of 73 applications to 26 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 529-568.
    10. Adelman, Irma & Robinson, Sherman, 1988. "Macroeconomic adjustment and income distribution : Alternative models applied to two economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 23-44, July.
    11. Diamond, J, 1976. "Key Sectors in Some Underdeveloped Countries: A Comment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 762-764.
    12. Bullard, Clark W & Sebald, Anthony V, 1988. "Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Input-Output Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 708-712, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins, 2011. "Análise de Insumo-Produto: Teoria e Fundamentos
      [Input-Output Analysis: Theory and Foundations]
      ," MPRA Paper 32566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Crocomo, Francisco C. & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins, 1998. "Análise das relações inter-regionais e intersetoriais na economia brasileira em 1985: uma aplicação de insumo produto
      [Analysis of the interregional and inter sectoral relations in Brazilian econom
      ," MPRA Paper 54675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Casimiro Filho, Francisco & Rocha, Marcelo Theoto & Lima, Patrícia Verônica Pinheiro Sales & Miranda, Silvia Helena G. de & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins, 2002. "MIBRA-USP, an interregional applied general equilibrium model for the Brazilian economy," MPRA Paper 54309, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Eduardo Haddad & Alexandre A. Porsse & Eduardo P. Ribeiro, 2006. "Modeling Interjurisdictional Tax Competition in a Federal System," ERSA conference papers ersa06p359, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Edson Paulo Domingues & Kênia Barreiro de Souza, 2012. "The Welfare Impacts of Changes in the Brazilian Domestic Work Market," One Pager 180, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    6. Eduardo Haddad & Geoffrey Hewings, 1999. "The short-run regional effects of new investments and technological upgrade in the Brazilian automobile industry: An interregional computable general equilibrium analysis," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 359-383.
    7. Alexandre Porsse & Eduardo Haddad & Eduardo Ribeiro, 2005. "Economic Effects Of Regional Tax Incentives: A General Equilibrium Approach," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 124, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Alexandre Porsse & Eduardo Haddad, 2005. "Tax incentives and economic effects - a general equilibrium approach," ERSA conference papers ersa05p733, European Regional Science Association.
    9. Eduardo Simões de Almeida & Eduardo Amaral Haddad & Geoffrey John Dennis Hewings, 2003. "The Transport-Regional Equity Issue Revisited," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] e33, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    10. Bliska, Flávia Maria de Mello & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins, 2000. "Impactos de alterações nas exportações brasileiras de carnes sobre a economia brasileira
      [Impacts of changes in the Brazilian meat exports on the Brazilian economy]
      ," MPRA Paper 54231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Eduardo Haddad & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 1998. "Transportation costs, regional inequality and structural changes in the Brazilian economy: An interregional CGE approach," ERSA conference papers ersa98p426, European Regional Science Association.
    12. Bliska, Flávia Maria de Mello & Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins, 2001. "The world meat market and Brazilian economy: an econometric input-out analysis," MPRA Paper 54670, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Computable model; agricultural policies; input-output matrix; Brazilian economy;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models


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