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Um modelo computável de equilíbrio geral para planejamento e análise de políticas agrícolas (PAPA) na economia brasileira
[A computable general equilibrium model for planning and analysis of agricultural policies (PAPA) in the Brazilian economy]

  • Guilhoto, Joaquim J.M.

This work describes a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Planning and Analysis of Agricultural Policies (PAPA) in the Brazilian economy. The PAPA model is a Computable model of the Johansen type and the solutions of the model are given in growth rates. This model is based on the ORANI model constructed for the Australian economy and in that sense it is a general purpose model that can be used to study the impact of agricultural policies not only on the agricultural sector, but also in the other economic sectors, in such way, it is also possible to study the impact of non-agricultural policies on the agricultural sector. The model is defined for: a) 33 types of industrieslcommodities; b) 3 types of primary factors (labor, fixed capital, and agricultural land); c) 3 categories of labor (workers who receive: between 0 and 5 minimum wages; between 5 and 20 minimum wages; and more than 20 minimum wages); d) 2 sources of products (domestic, and imported); e) 5 types of product use (inputs to current production, inputs to capital formation, commodity flows to household consumption, exports, government and other demands); and, f) 3 income groups (between 0 and 5 minimum wages; between 5 and 20 minimum wages; and more than 20 minimum wages). The model also presents a detailed specification for trade margins and taxes. The basic input-output data used in the model refers to the 1980 input-output matrices for the Brazilian economy. To illustrate the versatility and power of analysis of the PAPA model, this work presents the result of five simulations with the model: a) overall increase of 25% in the tariffs; b) increase of 10% in the aggregate expenditure of households in each income group; c) increase of 10% in the international price of coffee; d) increase of 10% in the exports of selected agricultural 1 agroindustrial sectors; e e) elimination of subsidies in the wheat sector.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42349.

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Date of creation: Jun 1995
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42349
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  1. Decaluwe, Bernard & Martens, Andre, 1988. "CGE modeling and developing economies: A concise empirical survey of 73 applications to 26 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 529-568.
  2. Clements, Benedict J., 1990. "On the decomposition and normalization of interindustry linkages," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 337-340, August.
  3. Cella, Guido, 1984. "The Input-Output Measurement of Interindustry Linkages," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(1), pages 73-84, February.
  4. Diamond, J, 1976. "Key Sectors in Some Underdeveloped Countries: A Comment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 762-64.
  5. W. Jill Harrison & K.R. Pearson & Alan A. Powell & E. John Small, 1993. "Solving Applied General Equilibrium Models Represented as a Mixture of Linearized and Levels Equation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-61, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  6. Bullard, Clark W & Sebald, Anthony V, 1988. "Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Input-Output Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 708-12, November.
  7. Harrison, W Jill & Pearson, K R, 1996. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 83-127, May.
  8. Drud, Arne & Grais, Wafik & Pyatt, Graham, 1986. "Macroeconomic modeling based on social-accounting principles," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 111-145.
  9. Simonovits, A, 1975. "A Note on the Underestimation and Overestimation of the Leontief Inverse," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 493-98, May.
  10. Pereira, Alfredo M. & Shoven, John B., 1988. "Survey of dynamic computational general equilibrium models for tax policy evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 401-436.
  11. Cooper, Russel J & McLaren, Keith R, 1983. "The ORANI-MACRO Interface: An Illustrative Exposition," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(165), pages 166-79, June.
  12. Adelman, Irma & Robinson, Sherman, 1988. "Macroeconomic adjustment and income distribution : Alternative models applied to two economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 23-44, July.
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