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Predictive Inference for Integrated Volatility

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  • Norman R. Swanson

    () (Rutgers University)

  • Valentina Corradi

    () (University of Warwick)

  • Walter Distaso

    () (Queen Mary)

Abstract

In recent years, numerous volatility-based derivative products have been engineered. This has led to interest in constructing conditional predictive den- sities and con¯dence intervals for integrated volatility. In this paper, we propose nonparametric estimators of the aforementioned quantities, based on model free volatility estimators. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality for the feasible estimators and study their ¯nite sample properties through a Monte Carlo experiment. Finally, using data from the New York Stock Exchange, we provide an empirical application to volatility directional predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Norman R. Swanson & Valentina Corradi & Walter Distaso, 2011. "Predictive Inference for Integrated Volatility," Departmental Working Papers 201109, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:201109
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Swanson, Norman R., 2009. "Predictive density estimators for daily volatility based on the use of realized measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 119-138, June.
    2. repec:oup:jfinec:v:14:y:2016:i:1:p:185-226. is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hotta, Luiz & Trucíos, Carlos & Ruiz, Esther, 2015. "Robust bootstrap forecast densities for GARCH models: returns, volatilities and value-at-risk," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws1523, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    4. Duong, Diep & Swanson, Norman R., 2015. "Empirical evidence on the importance of aggregation, asymmetry, and jumps for volatility prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 606-621.
    5. Bandi, Federico M. & Russell, Jeffrey R. & Yang, Chen, 2008. "Realized volatility forecasting and option pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 34-46, November.
    6. Filip Žikeš & Jozef Baruník, 2016. "Semi-parametric Conditional Quantile Models for Financial Returns and Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 14(1), pages 185-226.
    7. Matei, Marius, 2011. "Non-Linear Volatility Modeling of Economic and Financial Time Series Using High Frequency Data," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 116-141, June.
    8. Jia Li & Andrew J. Patton, 2013. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Accuracy Using High Frequency Data," Working Papers 13-27, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    9. Diep Duong & Norman R. Swanson, 2011. "Volatility in Discrete and Continuous Time Models: A Survey with New Evidence on Large and Small Jumps," Departmental Working Papers 201117, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    10. Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2012. "International market links and volatility transmission," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 117-141.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Diffusions; realized volatility measures; kernels; microstructure noise; jumps;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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