IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/118234.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uniform Confidence/Certainty Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Arnold, Rob

Abstract

Uniform Confidence/Certainty Estimation (UC2) is an approach and set of tools that address several issues that are common in risk estimation techniques. Deployed between analysis and modeling, UC2 brings uniformity and interoperability that improve risk model results and improve stakeholder engagement. Its unique features correctly capture confidence and certainty and improve interoperability between data-driven and expert-derived risk estimates and the models that consume them. In turn, UC2 increases uniformity, transparency, and stakeholder engagement, without ripping and replacing existing risk models or analytical workflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnold, Rob, 2023. "Uniform Confidence/Certainty Estimation," MPRA Paper 118234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:118234
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/118234/1/UC2%20v1.2.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk modeling; Risk analysis; Risk estimation; Scales; Confidence; Certainty; Accuracy and Precision; Quantitative; Qualitative; Objective; Subjective; Binomial probability; Probability distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:118234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.