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Türkiye turizm sektörünün talep analizi

Listed author(s):
  • Nezir KÖSE

    (Gazi Üniversitesi)

  • Yeliz YALÇIN

    (Gazi Üniversitesi)


    (Gazi Üniversitesi)

Bu çalışmada, 1991-2006 dönemini içeren üçer aylık veriler kullanılarak Türkiye turizm talep analizleri yapısal zaman serisi modeli çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Turizm talebini açıklamak için yapısal zaman serisi modeline fiyat ve gelir değişkenlerine ilaveten trend, mevsimsel ve devresel hareket bileşenleri stokastik yapıda dahil edilmiştir. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, gelir ve fiyat değişkenlerinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve turizm talebinin hem gelir hem de fiyata göre esnek olmadığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca, yapısal zaman serisi modeliyle birlikte alternatif dört modelin (mevsimsel ortalamalar, kosinüs trend, mevsimsel ARIMA ve Holt-Winters üstel düzgünleştirme) öngörü performansları karşılaştırılmıştır. En başarılı öngörü Mevsimsel ARIMA ve yapısal zaman serisi modelinin birleştirilmesi ile elde edilmiştir

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Article provided by Bilgesel Yayincilik in its journal İktisat İşletme ve Finans.

Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
Issue (Month): 263 ()
Pages: 24-40

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Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:23:y:2008:i:263:p:24-40
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