IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/iif/iifjrn/v23y2008i263p24-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Türkiye turizm sektörünün talep analizi

Author

Listed:
  • Nezir KÖSE

    (Gazi Üniversitesi)

  • Yeliz YALÇIN

    (Gazi Üniversitesi)

  • Furkan EMİRMAHMUTOĞLU

    (Gazi Üniversitesi)

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 1991-2006 dönemini içeren üçer aylık veriler kullanılarak Türkiye turizm talep analizleri yapısal zaman serisi modeli çerçevesinde incelenmiştir. Turizm talebini açıklamak için yapısal zaman serisi modeline fiyat ve gelir değişkenlerine ilaveten trend, mevsimsel ve devresel hareket bileşenleri stokastik yapıda dahil edilmiştir. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, gelir ve fiyat değişkenlerinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve turizm talebinin hem gelir hem de fiyata göre esnek olmadığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca, yapısal zaman serisi modeliyle birlikte alternatif dört modelin (mevsimsel ortalamalar, kosinüs trend, mevsimsel ARIMA ve Holt-Winters üstel düzgünleştirme) öngörü performansları karşılaştırılmıştır. En başarılı öngörü Mevsimsel ARIMA ve yapısal zaman serisi modelinin birleştirilmesi ile elde edilmiştir

Suggested Citation

  • Nezir KÖSE & Yeliz YALÇIN & Furkan EMİRMAHMUTOĞLU, 2008. "Türkiye turizm sektörünün talep analizi," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 23(263), pages 24-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:23:y:2008:i:263:p:24-40
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    turizm talebi; yapısal zaman serisi modeli; stokastik trend;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iif:iifjrn:v:23:y:2008:i:263:p:24-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ali Bilge (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://iif.com.tr .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.