Information Flows Around the Globe: Predicting Opening Gaps from Overnight Foreign Stock Price Patterns
This paper describes a forecasting exercise of close-to-open returns on major global stock indices, based on high-frequency price patterns that have become available in foreign markets overnight. Generally speaking, out-ofsample forecast performance depends on the forecast method as well as the information that the forecasts are based on. In this paper both aspects are considered. The fact that the close-to-open gap is a scalar response variable to a functional variable, namely an overnight foreign price pattern, brings the prediction exercise in the realm of functional data analysis. Both parametric and non-parametric functional data analysis are considered, and compared with a simple linear benchmark model. The information set is varied by dividing global markets into three clusters, Asia-Pacific, Europe and North-America, and including or excluding price patterns on a per-cluster basis. The overall best performing forecast is nonparametric using all available information, suggesting the presence of nonlinear relations between the overnight price patterns and the opening gaps.
Volume (Year): 4 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://cejeme.org/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gerety, Mason S & Mulherin, J Harold, 1994. "Price Formation on Stock Exchanges: The Evolution of Trading within the Day," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 609-29.
- Oldfield, George S, Jr & Rogalski, Richard J, 1980. " A Theory of Common Stock Returns over Trading and Non-Trading Periods," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(3), pages 729-51, June.
- French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
- Berkman, Henk & Koch, Paul D. & Tuttle, Laura & Zhang, Ying Jenny, 2012. "Paying Attention: Overnight Returns and the Hidden Cost of Buying at the Open," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(04), pages 715-741, August.
- Ananth Madhavan & Matthew Richardson & Mark Roomans, .
"Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
20-94, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Madhavan, Ananth & Richardson, Matthew & Roomans, Mark, 1997. "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1035-64.
- Ananth Madhavan & Matthew Richardson & Mark Roomans, 1996. "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-34, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Hasbrouck, Joel, 1993. "Assessing the Quality of a Security Market: A New Approach to Transaction-Cost Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 191-212.
- De Gooijer, Jan G. & Sivarajasingham, Selliah, 2008. "Parametric and nonparametric Granger causality testing: Linkages between international stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(11), pages 2547-2560.
- Harrison Hong & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Trading and Returns under Periodic Market Closures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 297-354, 02.
- Muller, Hans-Georg & Stadtmuller, Ulrich & Yao, Fang, 2006. "Functional Variance Processes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1007-1018, September.
- Bekiros, S. & Diks, C.G.H., 2007.
"The Nonlinear Dynamic Relationship of Exchange Rates: Parametric and Nonparametric Causality testing,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
07-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Bekiros, Stelios D. & Diks, Cees G.H., 2008. "The nonlinear dynamic relationship of exchange rates: Parametric and nonparametric causality testing," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1641-1650, December.
- Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009.
"Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?,"
2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart & McMillan, David & Ono, Sadayuki, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: When and where is it exploitable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 373-399.
- Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
- Michael J. Barclay & Terrence Hendershott, 2004. "Liquidity Externalities and Adverse Selection: Evidence from Trading after Hours," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 681-710, 04.
- Gooijer, Jan G. De & Gannoun, Ali, 2000. "Nonparametric conditional predictive regions for time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 259-275, May.
- Michael J. Barclay, 2003. "Price Discovery and Trading After Hours," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1041-1073.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:4:y:2012:i:1:p:23-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Krzysztof Osiewalski)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.