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Parametric and nonparametric Granger causality testing: Linkages between international stock markets

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  • De Gooijer, Jan G.
  • Sivarajasingham, Selliah

Abstract

This study investigates long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages among eleven stock markets, six industrialized markets and five emerging markets of South-East Asia. We cover the period 1987–2006, taking into account the on-set of the Asian financial crisis of 1997. We first apply a test for the presence of general nonlinearity in vector time series. Substantial differences exist between the pre- and post-crisis period in terms of the total number of significant nonlinear relationships. We then examine both periods, using a new nonparametric test for Granger noncausality and the conventional parametric Granger noncausality test. One major finding is that the Asian stock markets have become more internationally integrated after the Asian financial crisis. An exception is the Sri Lankan market with almost no significant long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages with other markets. To ensure that any causality is strictly nonlinear in nature, we also examine the nonlinear causal relationships of VAR filtered residuals and VAR filtered squared residuals for the post-crisis sample. We find quite a few remaining significant bi- and uni-directional causal nonlinear relationships in these series. Finally, after filtering the VAR-residuals with GARCH-BEKK models, we show that the nonparametric test statistics are substantially smaller in both magnitude and statistical significance than those before filtering. This indicates that nonlinear causality can, to a large extent, be explained by simple volatility effects.

Suggested Citation

  • De Gooijer, Jan G. & Sivarajasingham, Selliah, 2008. "Parametric and nonparametric Granger causality testing: Linkages between international stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(11), pages 2547-2560.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:387:y:2008:i:11:p:2547-2560
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2008.01.033
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan G. De Gooijer & Cees G. H. Diks & Łukasz T. Gątarek, 2012. "Information Flows Around the Globe: Predicting Opening Gaps from Overnight Foreign Stock Price Patterns," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 4(1), pages 23-44, March.
    2. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Olgun, Hasan & Saracoglu, Bedriye, 2009. "Dynamic linkages between the center and periphery in international stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 46-53, January.
    3. Abu Bakar, Norhidayah & Masih, Abul Mansur M., 2014. "The Dynamic Linkages between Islamic Index and the Major Stock Markets: New Evidence from Wavelet time-scale decomposition Analysis," MPRA Paper 56977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Korkmaz, Turhan & Çevik, Emrah İ. & Atukeren, Erdal, 2012. "Return and volatility spillovers among CIVETS stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 230-252.
    5. repec:eee:phsmap:v:495:y:2018:i:c:p:436-453 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2009. "Linkages between international stock markets: A multivariate long-memory approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(12), pages 2461-2468.
    7. Fowowe, Babajide, 2016. "Do oil prices drive agricultural commodity prices? Evidence from South Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 149-157.
    8. Anil Sharma & Neha Seth, 2012. "Literature review of stock market integration: a global perspective," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 84-122, April.
    9. Lahmiri, Salim, 2017. "Cointegration and causal linkages in fertilizer markets across different regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 181-189.

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