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The Connection of Stock Markets Between Germany and the USA: New Evidence From a Co-integration Study

  • Eberts, Elke
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    This paper uses an empirical connection between real stock market indices of Germany and the USA for forecasting corresponding returns. We are starting from the random walk as the traditional forecasting model in stock market applications, extending it by co-integration. Since the cointegrating relation considers information about a systematic link between the stock market indices, containing a common stochastic trend of both, differences from the random walk occur particularly in the long run. Thus, the estimation period shows that with increasing forecasting horizon predictability of simple real returns of the German stock market gets more accurate than reflected traditionally.

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    Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 03-36.

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    Date of creation: 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:1346
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    1. Llubos Pástor, 2001. "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1207-1239, 08.
    2. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
    3. Anthony J. Richards, 1996. "Comovements in National Stock Market Returns: Evidence of Predictability But Not Cointegration," IMF Working Papers 96/28, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    5. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "Portfolio Advice for a Multifactor World," CRSP working papers 491, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    6. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, July.
    8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    9. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
    10. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New Facts in Finance," NBER Working Papers 7169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    12. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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