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When are adaptive expectations rational? A generalization


  • Shepherd, Ben


This note presents a simple generalization of the adaptive expectations mechanism in which the learning parameter is time variant. It is shown that expectations generated in this way are rational in the sense of producing minimum mean squared forecast errors for a broad class of time series models, namely any process that can be written in linear state space form.

Suggested Citation

  • Shepherd, Ben, 2011. "When are adaptive expectations rational? A generalization," MPRA Paper 34644, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34644

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1988. "Expectations, Learning and the Kalman Filter," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 56(3), pages 223-246, September.
    2. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, June.
    3. H. Theil & S. Wage, 1964. "Some Observations on Adaptive Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 198-206, January.
    4. M. Nerlove & S. Wage, 1964. "On the Optimality of Adaptive Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 207-224, January.
    5. repec:adr:anecst:y:2002:i:67-68:p:05 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Homburg, Stefan, 2017. "A Study in Monetary Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198807537.
    2. Šimpach Ondřej & Langhamrová Jitka, 2013. "Forecasting Future Salaries in the Czech Republic Using Stochastic Modelling," Business Systems Research, De Gruyter Open, vol. 4(2), pages 4-16, December.
    3. Findley, T. Scott, 2015. "Hyperbolic memory discounting and the political business cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 345-359.
    4. Sorge, Marco M., 2013. "Generalized adaptive expectations revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 203-205.

    More about this item


    Adaptive Expectations; Rational Expectations; Kalman Filter;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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