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The Golden Mean, the Arab Spring and a 10-step analysis of American economic history

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  • Albers, Scott
  • Albers, Andrew L.

Abstract

The Long-Wave theories of Nikolai Kondratiev and others claim to find mathematic waves in economic and other social data which are at present in dispute. Currently the theory is considered outside the scope of mainstream economics under several rationales. Despite the lack of mainstream acceptance, we make a strong case for the existence of long waves in the Real GNP of the United States with a 56 year cycle. Our analysis bypasses many of the issues cited by Long-Wave theory critics and in fact clarifies the mathematical structure of the theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Albers, Scott & Albers, Andrew L., 2011. "The Golden Mean, the Arab Spring and a 10-step analysis of American economic history," MPRA Paper 33004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33004
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/33004/1/MPRA_paper_33004.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    3. Jourdon, Philippe, 2010. "La monnaie unique europeenne et sa relation au developpement economique et social coordonne : une analyse cliometrique. Tome IV : Annexes," Entelequia eBooks, Entelequia y Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, edition 1, volume 4, number b013, May.
    4. McCauley,Joseph L., 2009. "Dynamics of Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521429627, October.
    5. Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
    6. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Albers, Scott, 2012. "Predicting crises: Five essays on the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises," MPRA Paper 43484, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Albers, Scott, 2013. "Of Jane Austen and the secret life of econometric quantities, or as otherwise entitled on Okun's Law and the 'multiplicative inverse surprise'," MPRA Paper 44594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Albers, Scott & Albers, Andrew, 2015. "On the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises: toward a harmonic interpretation of the Kondratiev Wave, revised and corrected, with a new appendix, February 12, 2015," MPRA Paper 62118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Albers, Scott, 2014. "On the architecture of the rings of Saturn: An “identity” theory of the distribution of gaps within rings," MPRA Paper 55632, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Albers, Scott & Albers, Andrew L., 2013. "Does “Okun’s Law” state a Pi:1 ratio? Toward a harmonic interpretation of why Okun’s Law works," MPRA Paper 44843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Albers, Scott, 2013. "Okun’s Law as a Pi-to-1 ratio: A harmonic / trigonometric theory as to why Okun’s Law works," MPRA Paper 46633, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Albers, Scott, 2014. "Towards an economic architecture of the rings of Saturn: On the Political Economy Wave, Kaluza’s fifth dimension and an alternative derivation of the Roche Limit," MPRA Paper 55276, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Albers, Scott, 2015. "An attitude of complexity: thirteen essays on the nature and construction of reality under the challenge of Zeno's Paradox," MPRA Paper 64618, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real GNP; Golden Mean; Fibonacci Series; Arab Spring; Phi; Long Wave; Long Cycle; Kondratiev Wave; Economic Forecasting; Economic Model; Global Financial Crisis; Constitutional Law; American Economic History; Revolution; Consolidation; GNP Spiral; Okun's Law; “The Great Moderation”;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other
    • K19 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Other
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • K0 - Law and Economics - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • A13 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Social Values
    • E19 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Other
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • B59 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Other
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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