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Predicting crises: Five essays on the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises

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  • Albers, Scott

Abstract

This volume – Predicting Crisis: Five Essays on the Mathematic Prediction of Economic and Social Crises – is the first of three sets of essays. In this first set the economic and social history of the United States is shown to be a “system of movement,” i.e. a logical and mathematic progression of events which may be analyzed according to a set formula. The model proposed demonstrates that the citizen’s individual “consciousness” is writ large in the macro-economic statistics of this unique economy and thereby made available for inspection at other levels of reality.

Suggested Citation

  • Albers, Scott, 2012. "Predicting crises: Five essays on the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises," MPRA Paper 43484, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43484
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43484/1/MPRA_paper_43484.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albers, Scott & Albers, Andrew L., 2011. "The Golden Mean, the Arab Spring and a 10-step analysis of American economic history," MPRA Paper 33004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2011. "Rethinking Macroeconomics: What Failed, And How To Repair It," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 591-645, August.
    3. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    4. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 90(Q III), pages 5-32.
    5. Solomou,Solomos, 1990. "Phases of Economic Growth, 1850–1973," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521389044.
    6. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    7. Jourdon, Philippe, 2010. "La monnaie unique europeenne et sa relation au developpement economique et social coordonne : une analyse cliometrique. Tome IV : Annexes," Entelequia eBooks, Entelequia y Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, edition 1, volume 4, number b013, May.
    8. McCauley,Joseph L., 2009. "Dynamics of Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521429627.
    9. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Sviatoslav R. Rybnikov & Natalya A. Rybnikova & Boris A. Portnov, 2017. "Public Fears in Ukrainian Society," Psychology and Developing Societies, , vol. 29(1), pages 98-123, March.
    2. Albers, Scott & Albers, Andrew, 2015. "On the mathematic prediction of economic and social crises: toward a harmonic interpretation of the Kondratiev Wave, revised and corrected, with a new appendix, February 12, 2015," MPRA Paper 62118, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fifth dimension; consciousness; unemployment; Okun’s Law; real GNP; crisis; prediction; mathematics; economic history; cycle; Kondratiev wave; long wave; Golden Mean; phi; pi; mathematic ratio; octave; music; political economy wave; Kaluza; General Theory of Relativity; complexity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals
    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • N00 - Economic History - - General - - - General
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • B52 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Modern Monetary Theory;
    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • B24 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Socialist; Marxist; Scraffian
    • B5 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • B0 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - General
    • K0 - Law and Economics - - General
    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • K00 - Law and Economics - - General - - - General (including Data Sources and Description)
    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General
    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design
    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • B40 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - General
    • A13 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Social Values
    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • B59 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Other
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D00 - Microeconomics - - General - - - General
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology

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