IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/24659.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach in the Prediction of Financial Stability and Distress Periods

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanis, eleftheios

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present a neuro-fuzzy approach of financial distress pre-warning model appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) from 2002 through 2008. We present an adaptive neuro-fuzzy system with triangle and Gaussian membership functions. We conclude that neuro-fuzzy model presents almost perfect forecasts for financial distress periods as also very high forecasting performance for financial stability periods, indicating that ANFIS technology is more appropriate for financial credit risk control and management and for the forecasting of bankruptcy and distress periods. On the other hand we propose the use of both models, because with Logit and generally with discrete choice models we can examine and investigate the effects of the inputs or the independent variables, while we can simultaneously use ANFIS for forecasting purposes. The wise and the most scientific option are to combine both models and not taking only one of them

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanis, eleftheios, 2008. "A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach in the Prediction of Financial Stability and Distress Periods," MPRA Paper 24659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24659
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24659/1/MPRA_paper_24659.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harlan Platt & Marjorie Platt, 2002. "Predicting corporate financial distress: Reflections on choice-based sample bias," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(2), pages 184-199, June.
    2. Wen-Ying Cheng & Ender Su & Sheng-Jung Li, 2006. "A Financial Distress Pre-Warning Study by Fuzzy Regression Model of TSE-Listed Companies," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 2(2), pages 75-93.
    3. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balkin, Sandy, 2001. "On Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Neural Networks: P.H. Franses and P.V. Homelen, 1998, Applied Financial Economics, 8, 589-596," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 139-140.
    2. Barrow, Devon & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2018. "The impact of special days in call arrivals forecasting: A neural network approach to modelling special days," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 967-977.
    3. Daniel Buncic, 2012. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 399-426, August.
    4. Sofie Balcaen & Sophie Manigart & Hubert Ooghe, 2011. "From distress to exit: determinants of the time to exit," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 407-446, August.
    5. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.
    6. Apostolos Ampountolas & Titus Nyarko Nde & Paresh Date & Corina Constantinescu, 2021. "A Machine Learning Approach for Micro-Credit Scoring," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Ebrahimpour, Reza & Nikoo, Hossein & Masoudnia, Saeed & Yousefi, Mohammad Reza & Ghaemi, Mohammad Sajjad, 2011. "Mixture of MLP-experts for trend forecasting of time series: A case study of the Tehran stock exchange," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 804-816, July.
    8. Hewamalage, Hansika & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bandara, Kasun, 2021. "Recurrent Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting: Current status and future directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 388-427.
    9. Leung, Philip C.M. & Lee, Eric W.M., 2013. "Estimation of electrical power consumption in subway station design by intelligent approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 634-643.
    10. Donya Rahmani & Saeed Heravi & Hossein Hassani & Mansi Ghodsi, 2016. "Forecasting time series with structural breaks with Singular Spectrum Analysis, using a general form of recurrent formula," Papers 1605.02188, arXiv.org.
    11. Wei Sun & Yujun He & Hong Chang, 2015. "Forecasting Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption for Power Generation Using QHSA-Based LSSVM Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-21, January.
    12. Saman, Corina, 2011. "Scenarios of the Romanian GDP Evolution With Neural Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 129-140, December.
    13. Ghiassi, M. & Saidane, H. & Zimbra, D.K., 2005. "A dynamic artificial neural network model for forecasting time series events," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 341-362.
    14. Barrow, Devon K., 2016. "Forecasting intraday call arrivals using the seasonal moving average method," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 6088-6096.
    15. Jani, D.B. & Mishra, Manish & Sahoo, P.K., 2017. "Application of artificial neural network for predicting performance of solid desiccant cooling systems – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 352-366.
    16. Oscar Claveria & Salvador Torra, 2013. "“Forecasting Business surveys indicators: neural networks vs. time series models”," AQR Working Papers 201312, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Nov 2013.
    17. Bento, P.M.R. & Pombo, J.A.N. & Calado, M.R.A. & Mariano, S.J.P.S., 2018. "A bat optimized neural network and wavelet transform approach for short-term price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 88-97.
    18. Nataša Glišović & Miloš Milenković & Nebojša Bojović & Libor Švadlenka & Zoran Avramović, 2016. "A hybrid model for forecasting the volume of passenger flows on Serbian railways," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 271-285, July.
    19. Jaroslaw Kaczmarek & Sergio Luis Nanez Alonso & Andrzej Sokolowski & Kamil Fijorek & Sabina Denkowska, 2021. "Financial threat profiles of industrial enterprises in Poland," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 463-498, June.
    20. Timothy Praditia & Thilo Walser & Sergey Oladyshkin & Wolfgang Nowak, 2020. "Improving Thermochemical Energy Storage Dynamics Forecast with Physics-Inspired Neural Network Architecture," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-26, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial distress; ANFIS; Neuro-Fuzzy; Fuzzy rules; Fuzzy membership functions; triangle; Gaussian; MALTAB;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24659. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.