IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v27y2011i3p689-699.html

Conditionally dependent strategies for multiple-step-ahead prediction in local learning

Author

Listed:
  • Bontempi, Gianluca
  • Ben Taieb, Souhaib

Abstract

Computational intelligence approaches to multiple-step-ahead forecasting rely on either iterated one-step-ahead predictors or direct predictors. In both cases the predictions are obtained by means of multi-input single-output modeling techniques. This paper discusses the limitations of single-output approaches when the predictor is expected to return a long series of future values, and presents a multi-output approach to long term prediction. The motivation for this work is that, when predicting multiple steps ahead, the forecasted sequence should preserve the stochastic properties of the training series. However, this may not be the case, for instance in direct approaches where predictions for different horizons are produced independently. We discuss here a multi-output extension of conventional local modeling approaches, and present and compare three distinct criteria for performing conditionally dependent model selection. In order to assess the effectiveness of the different selection strategies, we carry out an extensive experimental session based on the 111 series in the NN5 competition.

Suggested Citation

  • Bontempi, Gianluca & Ben Taieb, Souhaib, 2011. "Conditionally dependent strategies for multiple-step-ahead prediction in local learning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 689-699.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:3:p:689-699
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.09.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207010001433
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.09.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Weigang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Su, Zhongyue, 2016. "One day ahead wind speed forecasting: A resampling-based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 886-901.
    2. Li, Shibao & Guo, Liang & Zhu, Jinze & Liu, Menglong & Chen, Jiaxin & Meng, Zihan, 2026. "Short-term multi-step wind speed forecasting with multi-feature inputs using Variational Mode Decomposition, a novel artificial intelligence network, and the Polar Lights Optimizer," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(PB).
    3. Fabrizio De Caro & Jacopo De Stefani & Gianluca Bontempi & Alfredo A. Vaccaro & Domenico D. Villacci, 2020. "Robust Assessment of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Models on Multiple Time Horizons," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/314435, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Li, Yanfei & Shi, Huipeng & Han, Fengze & Duan, Zhu & Liu, Hui, 2019. "Smart wind speed forecasting approach using various boosting algorithms, big multi-step forecasting strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 540-553.
    5. Xianwang Li & Zhongxiang Huang & Saihu Liu & Jinxin Wu & Yuxiang Zhang, 2023. "Short-Term Subway Passenger Flow Prediction Based on Time Series Adaptive Decomposition and Multi-Model Combination (IVMD-SE-MSSA)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-30, May.
    6. V. Kamini & V. Ravi & A. Prinzie & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Cash Demand Forecasting in ATMs by Clustering and Neural Networks," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/865, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    7. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    8. Wang, Jianzhou & Song, Yiliao & Liu, Feng & Hou, Ru, 2016. "Analysis and application of forecasting models in wind power integration: A review of multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 960-981.
    9. Kück, Mirko & Freitag, Michael, 2021. "Forecasting of customer demands for production planning by local k-nearest neighbor models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    10. Twumasi, Clement & Twumasi, Juliet, 2022. "Machine learning algorithms for forecasting and backcasting blood demand data with missing values and outliers: A study of Tema General Hospital of Ghana," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1258-1277.
    11. Ma, Shaohui & Fildes, Robert, 2020. "Forecasting third-party mobile payments with implications for customer flow prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 739-760.
    12. Cerqueira, Vitor & Torgo, Luis & Bontempi, Gianluca, 2024. "Instance-based meta-learning for conditionally dependent univariate multi-step forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1507-1520.
    13. Wu, Yujie & Wang, Jianzhou, 2016. "A novel hybrid model based on artificial neural networks for solar radiation prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 268-284.
    14. An, Ning & Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jianzhou & Shang, Duo & Zhao, Erdong, 2013. "Using multi-output feedforward neural network with empirical mode decomposition based signal filtering for electricity demand forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 279-288.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:3:p:689-699. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.