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Modelo de simulación del valor de la pensión de un trabajador en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Reveiz
  • Carlos León
  • Freddy H. Castro
  • Gabriel piraquive

Abstract

Este trabajo desarrolla un modelo de simulación para estimar el flujo de caja de un pensionado que tiene su cuenta individual en una Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones (AFP) colombiana. Se proyecta el flujo a partir de las sendas salariales y densidades de cotización estimadas por la Dirección de Estudios Económicos del Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP) y, basado en lo anterior, se calcula el valor de la pensión que se podría obtener a partir de la riqueza acumulada al final de la vida laboral. Los resultados muestran que, de no adoptar medidas tendientes a aumentar las densidades y las tasas de cotización, un gran porcentaje de la fuerza laboral obtendrá pensiones inferiores a la mínima establecida por ley, sin siquiera cumplir con los requisitos para acceder a la garantía estatal para obtener la misma.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Reveiz & Carlos León & Freddy H. Castro & Gabriel piraquive, 2009. "Modelo de simulación del valor de la pensión de un trabajador en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 553, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:553
    DOI: 10.32468/be.553
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rafael Rofman & Leonardo Lucchetti & Guzmán Ourens, 2010. "Pension Systems in Latin America: Concepts and Measurements of Coverage," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0510, Department of Economics - dECON.
    2. Carolina Gómez Restrepo & Diego Jara Pinzón & Andrés Murcia Pabón, 2006. "Impacto De Las Operaciones De Los Fondos De Pensiones Obligatorias En Los Mercados Financieros Colombianos," Borradores de Economia 2806, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Solange Berstein & Andrea Tokman, 2005. "Brechas de ingreso entre géneros: ¿Perpetuadas o exacerbadas en la vejez?," Working Papers 8, Superintendencia de Pensiones, revised Jul 2005.
    4. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    5. -, 2008. "Transformaciones demográficas y su influencia en el desarrollo en América Latina y el Caribe," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 2894 edited by Cepal.
    6. Riccardo Rebonato, 2007. "Introduction to Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently," Introductory Chapters, in: Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently, Princeton University Press.
    7. Francisco Pino & Solange Berstein & Guillermo Larraín, 2006. "Chilean Pension Reform: Coverage Facts and Policy Alternatives," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 227-279, January.
    8. Juana Paola BUSTAMANTE IZQUIERDO, 2006. "Factores que inciden en la cobertura del sistema pensional en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 2711, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    9. Hernando Vargas & Rocío Betnacourt, 2006. "Pension Fund Managers Behavior In The Foreign Exchange Market," Borradores de Economia 391, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Carlos León & Juan Mario Laserna, 2008. "Asignación Estratégica de Activos para Fondos de Pensiones Obligatorias en Colombia: Un Enfoque Alternativo," Borradores de Economia 4970, Banco de la Republica.
    11. Carlos Alberto Castro Iragorri, 2009. "Administración de riesgos en los Fondos Privados de Pensiones," Archivos de Economía 5250, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    12. Carlos Fernando Silva Pena, 2003. "Garantía De Pensión Mínima En Colombia: El Efecto De La Volatilidad Del Retorno De La Cuenta De Ahorro Individual," Documentos CEDE 2750, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mauricio Arias & Juan Carlos Mendoza, 2009. "Un modelo de simulación del Régimen Pensional de Ahorro Individual con Solidaridad en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 044, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. María Angélica Arbeláez & Jorge Humberto Botero & Alejandra González & Camila Salamanca, 2011. "Sostenibilidad del seguro previsional en Colombia," Working Papers Series. Documentos de Trabajo 9066, Fedesarrollo.
    3. Carlos Alberto Soto Quintero & Alejandra Arboleda Bedoya & Juan Carlos Gutiérrez Betancur, 2012. "Trayectorias óptimas de inversión durante el ciclo de vida en un sistema de multifondos," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10713, Universidad EAFIT.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pensiones; Garantía de Pensión Mínima; Jubilación.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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