IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/pup/chapts/8474-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Introduction to Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently

In: Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently

Author

Listed:
  • Riccardo Rebonato

    (Royal Bank of Scotland, University of Oxford, Tanaka Business School, Imperial College London)

Abstract

Today's top financial-risk professionals have come to rely on ever-more sophisticated mathematics in their attempts to come to grips with financial risk. But this excessive reliance on quantitative precision is misleading--and it puts us all at risk. This is the case that Riccardo Rebonato makes in Plight of the Fortune Tellers --and coming from someone who is both an experienced market professional and an academic, this heresy is worth listening to. Rebonato forcefully argues that we must restore genuine decision making to our financial planning, and he shows us how to do it using probability, experimental psychology, and decision theory. This is the only way to effectively manage financial risk in a manner congruent with how human beings actually react to chance. Rebonato challenges us to rethink the standard wisdom about probability in financial-risk management. Risk managers have become obsessed with measuring risk and believe that these quantitative results by themselves can guide sound financial choices--but they can't. In this book, Rebonato offers a radical yet surprisingly commonsense solution, one that seeks to remind us that managing risk comes down to real people making decisions under uncertainty. Plight of the Fortune Tellers is not only a book for the decision makers of Wall Street, it's a must-read for anyone concerned about how today's financial markets are run. The stakes have never been higher--can you risk it?

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Rebonato, 2007. "Introduction to Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently," Introductory Chapters,in: Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently Princeton University Press.
  • Handle: RePEc:pup:chapts:8474-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8474.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8474.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Imad Moosa, 2012. "Basel 2.5: A lot of sizzle but little nutritional value," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(4), pages 320-335, November.
    2. repec:bla:srbeha:v:34:y:2017:i:6:p:728-745 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Tuckett, David, 2012. "Financial markets are markets in stories: Some possible advantages of using interviews to supplement existing economic data sources," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1077-1087.
    4. repec:eee:dyncon:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:223-256 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Varsanyi, Zoltan, 2008. "A simple model of decision making: How to avoid large outliers?," MPRA Paper 9528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Connel Fullenkamp & Celine Rochon, 2014. "Reconsidering Bank Capital Regulation; A New Combination of Rules, Regulators, and Market Discipline," IMF Working Papers 14/169, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Willett, Thomas D. & Srisorn, Nancy, 2014. "The political economy of the Euro crisis: Cognitive biases, faulty mental models, and time inconsistency," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 39-54.
    8. Zoltan VARSANY, 2008. "A Simple Model Of Decision Making Ï¿½How To Avoid Large Errors?," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 320-328.
    9. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    10. Thomas D. Willett, 2012. "The role of defective mental models in generating the global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 41-57, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial risk management; decision making; financial planning; probablity; experimental psychology; decision theory; financial markets;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pup:chapts:8474-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Webmaster). General contact details of provider: http://press.princeton.edu .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.