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Modelo de simulaci�n del valor de la pensi�n de un trabajador en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Reveiz
  • Carlos Le�n
  • Freddy H. Castro
  • Gabriel Piraquive

Abstract

Este trabajo desarrolla un modelo de simulaci�n para estimar el flujo de caja de unpensionado que tiene su cuenta individual en una Administradora de Fondos dePensiones (AFP) colombiana. Se proyecta el flujo a partir de las sendas salariales ydensidades de cotizaci�n estimadas por la Direcci�n de Estudios Econ�micos delDepartamento Nacional de Planeaci�n (DNP) y, basado en lo anterior, se calcula elvalor de la pensi�n que se podr�a obtener a partir de la riqueza acumulada al final de lavida laboral. Los resultados muestran que, de no adoptar medidas tendientes a aumentarlas densidades y las tasas de cotizaci�n, un gran porcentaje de la fuerza laboral obtendr�pensiones inferiores a la m�nima establecida por ley, sin siquiera cumplir con losrequisitos para acceder a la garant�a estatal para obtener la misma.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Reveiz & Carlos Le�n & Freddy H. Castro & Gabriel Piraquive, 2009. "Modelo de simulaci�n del valor de la pensi�n de un trabajador en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 5387, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:005387
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rafael Rofman & Leonardo Lucchetti & Guzmán Ourens, 2010. "Pension Systems in Latin America: Concepts and Measurements of Coverage," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0510, Department of Economics - dECON.
    2. Carolina G�mez Restrepo & Diego Jara Pinz�n & Andr�s Murcia Pab�n, 2006. "Impacto De Las Operaciones De Los Fondos De Pensiones Obligatorias En Los Mercados Financieros Colombianos," Borradores de Economia 2806, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    4. Riccardo Rebonato, 2007. "Introduction to Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently," Introductory Chapters, in: Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently, Princeton University Press.
    5. Francisco Pino & Solange Berstein & Guillermo Larra�n, 2006. "Chilean Pension Reform: Coverage Facts and Policy Alternatives," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 227-279.
    6. Juana Paola BUSTAMANTE IZQUIERDO, 2006. "Factores que inciden en la cobertura del sistema pensional en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 2711, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    7. Hernando Vargas & Rocío Betnacourt, 2006. "Pension Fund Managers Behavior In The Foreign Exchange Market," Borradores de Economia 391, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Carlos Alberto Castro Iragorri, 2009. "Administración de riesgos en los Fondos Privados de Pensiones," Archivos de Economía 5250, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    9. Carlos Fernando Silva Pena, 2003. "Garant√Ça De Pensi√Ìn M√Çnima En Colombia: El Efecto De La Volatilidad Del Retorno De La Cuenta De Ahorro Individual," Documentos CEDE 2750, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    10. Carlos Le�n & Juan Mario Laserna, 2008. "Asignaci�n Estrat�gica de Activos para Fondos de Pensiones Obligatorias en Colombia: Un Enfoque Alternativo," Borradores de Economia 4970, Banco de la Republica.
    11. Francisco Pino & Solange Berstein & Guillermo Larra�n, 2006. "Chilean Pension Reform: Coverage Facts and Policy Alternatives," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 227-279.
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    Cited by:

    1. María Angélica Arbeláez & Jorge Humberto Botero & Alejandra Gonz�lez & Camila Salamanca, 2011. "Sostenibilidad del seguro previsional en Colombia," Working Papers Series. Documentos de Trabajo 9066, Fedesarrollo.
    2. Mauricio Arias & Juan Carlos Mendoza, 2009. "Un modelo de simulación del Régimen Pensional de Ahorro Individual con Solidaridad en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 044, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Carlos Alberto Soto Quintero & Alejandra Arboleda Bedoya & Juan Carlos Guti�rrez Betancur, 2012. "Trayectorias óptimas de inversión durante el ciclo de vida en un sistema de multifondos," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10713, Universidad EAFIT.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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