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Factores que inciden en la cobertura del sistema pensional en Colombia

Author

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  • Juana Paola BUSTAMANTE IZQUIERDO

    ()

Abstract

El presente artículo provee una descripción de las principales variables de cobertura en el sistema pensional en Colombia e identifica los factores que inciden en la afiliación al sistema utilizando un modelo probit. La evidencia muestra que la edad, la educación y la informalidad son variables claves para incrementar la cobertura en afiliación a pensiones. Luego se exponen los resultados obtenidos bajo diferentes escenarios a futuro con combinaciones de políticas que afectan las variables del modelo, de esta forma se encuentra que la afiliación podría llegar a niveles entre el 70% y 80% en el año 2020. Adicionalmente, se construye un índice como una Proxy de la afiliación, el cual muestra una relación inversa con la tasa de desempleo y con la informalidad en el tiempo, el cual se puede utilizar en futuros análisis econométricos. Finalmente se propone que para incrementar la cobertura en el sistema es necesario crear hábitos de ahorro, mejorar la pertinencia en la educación y disminuir los costos no laborales, entre otros.

Suggested Citation

  • Juana Paola BUSTAMANTE IZQUIERDO, 2006. "Factores que inciden en la cobertura del sistema pensional en Colombia," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 002711, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000118:002711
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    File URL: https://colaboracion.dnp.gov.co/CDT/Estudios%20Econmicos/312.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Reveiz & Carlos León & Freddy H. Castro & Gabriel piraquive, 2009. "Modelo de simulación del valor de la pensión de un trabajador en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 553, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Salazar, C, 2007. "Determinantes de la Adopción Voluntaria del Seguro de Cesantía
      [Determinants of Voluntary Adoptions of Unemployment Insurance]
      ," MPRA Paper 7693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Roberto Steiner & Irene Clavijo & Natalia Salazar, 2008. "Colombia´s Efforts at Achieving Inclusive and Sustainable Growth: The Road Traveled and the Challenges Ahead," INFORMES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 009058, FEDESARROLLO.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pensión; Informalidad; Seguridad social en pensiones;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

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