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Nowcasting del PIB para Uruguay en base a un modelo de ecuaciones puente

Author

Listed:
  • Alejo Estavillo

    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)

  • Gabriela Mordecki

    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)

Abstract

In the realm of public policy or general economic decision-making, having timely information regarding the level of economic activity is of utmost importance. In this article we explore two methodologies applied to the Uruguayan case: a nowcasting exercise for GDP based on bridge equations estimated through the GETS methodology; and another based on a univariate model, exploiting the newly released Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE) by the Central Bank of Uruguay. Based on the nowcasting model, with information available up to September 2023, a year-on-year contraction of 0.2 % was expected in Q3-2023, and - still without information for Q4-2023 - a modest growth of 0.04 % for the year’s average. Furthermore, when comparing the projections within the sample with those obtained from a naive model (univariate for GDP), it is observed that the former are more accurate. Additionally, the feasibility of conducting pooling to enhance projections is explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejo Estavillo & Gabriela Mordecki, 2023. "Nowcasting del PIB para Uruguay en base a un modelo de ecuaciones puente," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 23-26, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-26-23
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42234
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Kuzin, Vladimir & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2011. "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 529-542.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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