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Data-based priors for vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients

  • Dimitris Korobilis

This paper proposes full-Bayes priors for time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) which are more robust and objective than existing choices proposed in the literature. We formulate the priors in a way that they allow for straightforward posterior computation, they require minimal input by the user, and they result in shrinkage posterior representations, thus, making them appropriate for models of large dimensions. A comprehensive forecasting exercise involving TVP-VARs of different dimensions establishes the usefulness of the proposed approach.

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Paper provided by Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow in its series Working Papers with number 2014_04.

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Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2014_04
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  1. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2009. "Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world," Staff Reports 388, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," CORE Discussion Papers 2011022, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. BELMONTE, Miguel A.G. & KOOP, Gary & KOROBILIS, Dimitris, 2011. "Hierarchical shrinkage in time-varying parameter models," CORE Discussion Papers 2011036, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012. "Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-14, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  5. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Working Papers ECARES 2009_020, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Eric Eisenstat & Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2014. "Stochastic Model Specification Search for Time-Varying Parameter VARs," CAMA Working Papers 2014-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Working Paper Series 47_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11431 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Wagner, Helga, 2010. "Stochastic model specification search for Gaussian and partial non-Gaussian state space models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 85-100, January.
  11. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2012. "Bayesian forecasting with highly correlated predictors," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-80, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  12. Dimitris Korobilis, 2011. "Hierarchical Shrinkage Priors for Dynamic Regressions with Many Predictors," Working Paper Series 21_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  13. A. Bhattacharya & D. B. Dunson, 2011. "Sparse Bayesian infinite factor models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(2), pages 291-306.
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