Bayesian forecasting with highly correlated predictors
This paper considers Bayesian variable selection in regressions with a large number of possibly highly correlated macroeconomic predictors. I show that acknowledging the correlation structure in the predictors can improve forecasts over existing popular Bayesian variable selection algorithms.
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- Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2012.
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51_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Apr 2011.
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "VAR forecasting using Bayesian variable selection," MPRA Paper 21124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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- K. J. Martijn Cremers, 2002. "Stock Return Predictability: A Bayesian Model Selection Perspective," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1223-1249.
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