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International Tourists’ Expenditures In Thailand: A Modelling Of The Arfima-Figarch Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Kanchana Chokethaworn

    (Chiang Mai University, Thailand)

  • Aree Wiboonponse

    (Chiang Mai University, Thailand)

  • Songsak Sriboonchitta

    (Chiang Mai University, Thailand)

  • Jittaporn Sriboonjit

    (Thammassat University, Thailand)

  • Chukiat Chaiboonsri

    () (Chiang Mai University, Thailand)

  • Prasert Chaitip

    (Chiang Mai University, Thailand)

Abstract

Forecasting is an essential analytical tool for tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q). Secondary data was used to produce forecasts of international tourists’ expenditures in Thailand for the period 2009-2010. The results of this research for this period confirms that the best forecasting method based on ARFIMA(p,d,q)-FIGARCH(p,d,q) method is the ARFIMA(1,-0.672,1)-FIGARCH(1,-0.180,1) method. Furthermore, this method predicts the expenditures of tourists in Thailand for the period of 2009-2010 will be constant or decline. If these results can be generalized for future years, then it suggests that both the Thailand government sector and also the private tourism industry sector of Thailand need to develop the tourism market of Thailand immediately and also develop tourism products in Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • Kanchana Chokethaworn & Aree Wiboonponse & Songsak Sriboonchitta & Jittaporn Sriboonjit & Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Prasert Chaitip, 2010. "International Tourists’ Expenditures In Thailand: A Modelling Of The Arfima-Figarch Approach," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 10(2), pages 85-98.
  • Handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:10:y:2010:i:2:p:85-98
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    Cited by:

    1. Ruxandra-Irina POPESCU & Rãzvan-Andrei CORBOª, 2013. "“Amazing Thailand” – Its Contribution To Growing The Country’S Competitiveness," Proceedings of Administration and Public Management International Conference, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 9(1), pages 220-234, June.
    2. repec:rom:campco:v:9:y:2013:i:1:p:220-234 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Thailand; ARFIMA-FIGARCH method; International Tourists’ Expenditure;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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