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Efficient Aggregation of Panel Qualitative Survey Data

  • James Mitchell

    ()

  • Richard J. Smith
  • Martin R. Weale

Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional indicators exploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who report “up” and “down”. This paper examines disaggregate or firm-level survey responses. It considers how the responses of the individual firms should be quantified and combined if the aim is to produce an early indication of official output data. Having linked firms’ categorical responses to official data using ordered discrete choice models, the paper proposes a statistically efficient means of combining the disparate estimates of aggregate output growth which can be constructed from the responses of individual firms. An application to firm-level survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the proposed indicator can provide early estimates of output growth more accurately than traditional indicators.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 11/53.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
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Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:11/53
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  1. Bontemps, Christian & Meddahi, Nour, 2005. "Testing normality: a GMM approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 149-186, January.
  2. Forni, Mario, et al, 2001. "Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C62-85, May.
  3. Machin, Stephen J & Stewart, Mark B, 1990. "Unions and the Financial Performance of British Private Sector Establishments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 327-50, Oct.-Dec..
  4. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006. "Survey Expectations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  5. Ray Barrell, 1999. "Employment Security and European Labour Demand: A Panel Study Across 16 Industries," NIESR Discussion Papers 194, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  6. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1984. "General approach of serial correlation (a)," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8424, CEPREMAP.
  7. Chesher, Andrew & Irish, Margaret, 1987. "Residual analysis in the grouped and censored normal linear model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 33-61.
  8. Batchelor, R. A., 1981. "Aggregate expectations under the stable laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 199-210, June.
  9. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2005. "Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm-Level Survey Data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 479-499, 07.
  10. Ciaran Driver & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "Transforming Qualitative Survey Data: Performance Comparisons for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 71-89, 02.
  11. McIntosh, James & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Low, William, 1989. "A Qualitative Response Analysis of UK Firms' Employment and Output Decisions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 251-64, July-Sept.
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