Efficient Aggregation of Panel Qualitative Survey Data
Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional indicators exploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who report “up” and “down”. This paper examines disaggregate or firm-level survey responses. It considers how the responses of the individual firms should be quantified and combined if the aim is to produce an early indication of official output data. Having linked firms’ categorical responses to official data using ordered discrete choice models, the paper proposes a statistically efficient means of combining the disparate estimates of aggregate output growth which can be constructed from the responses of individual firms. An application to firm-level survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the proposed indicator can provide early estimates of output growth more accurately than traditional indicators.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics University of Leicester, University Road. Leicester. LE1 7RH. UK|
Phone: +44 (0)116 252 2887
Fax: +44 (0)116 252 2908
Web page: http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/economics
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/economics/research/discussion-papers Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bontemps, Christian & Meddahi, Nour, 2005.
"Testing normality: a GMM approach,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 149-186, January.
- Christian Bontemps & Nour Meddahi, 2002. "Testing Normality: A GMM Approach," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-63, CIRANO.
- Christian BONTEMPS & Nour MEDDAHI, 2002. "Testing Normality : A Gmm Approach," Cahiers de recherche 14-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- BONTEMPS, Christian & MEDDAHI, Nour, 2002. "Testing Normality : A GMM Approach," Cahiers de recherche 2002-14, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006. "Survey Expectations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 1599, CESifo Group Munich.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," IEPR Working Papers 05.30, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
- Dr Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," NIESR Discussion Papers 260, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Ciaran Driver & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "Transforming Qualitative Survey Data: Performance Comparisons for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 71-89, 02.
- Batchelor, R. A., 1981. "Aggregate expectations under the stable laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 199-210, June.
- Forni, Mario, et al, 2001. "Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 62-85, May.
- Lucrezia Reichlin & Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi, 2001. "Coincident and leading indicators for the Euro area," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10137, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Richard Stone & D. G. Champernowne & J. E. Meade, 1942. "The Precision of National Income Estimates," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 111-125.
- Chesher, Andrew & Irish, Margaret, 1987. "Residual analysis in the grouped and censored normal linear model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 33-61.
- Machin, Stephen J & Stewart, Mark B, 1990. "Unions and the Financial Performance of British Private Sector Establishments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 327-350, Oct.-Dec..
- Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1984. "General approach of serial correlation (a)," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8424, CEPREMAP.
- James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2005. "Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm-Level Survey Data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 479-499, 07.
- Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2005. "Forecasting manufacturing output growth using firm-level survey data," NIESR Discussion Papers 251, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- McIntosh, James & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Low, William, 1989. "A Qualitative Response Analysis of UK Firms' Employment and Output Decisions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 251-264, July-Sept.
- Ray Barrell, 1999. "Employment Security and European Labour Demand: A Panel Study Across 16 Industries," NIESR Discussion Papers 148, National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:11/53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mrs. Alexandra Mazzuoccolo)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.