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A Qualitative Response Analysis of UK Firms' Employment and Output Decisions

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  • McIntosh, James
  • Schiantarelli, Fabio
  • Low, William

Abstract

This paper investigates firms' employment and output decisions and presents some empirical evidence concerning the rationality of firms' expectations. The dynamic model is based on the assumptions of convex adjustment costs and monopolistic competition in the product market. The results are obtained using categorical information individual firms contained in business surveys collected by the Confederation of British Industry. Ordered probit models are used to estimate the employment and output equations. We find that expected demand is a critical determinant of firms' decisions, the effect of changes in cost conditions is not as well determined, and the data are not consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis. Copyright 1989 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • McIntosh, James & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Low, William, 1989. "A Qualitative Response Analysis of UK Firms' Employment and Output Decisions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 251-264, July-Sept.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:4:y:1989:i:3:p:251-64
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
    2. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2013. "Efficient Aggregation Of Panel Qualitative Survey Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 580-603, June.
    3. Anderson, Michael A. & Goldsmith, Arthur H., 1997. "Mr. Keynes' theory of investment: Do forward looking expectations and weight really matter?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 547-573, September.
    4. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
    5. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2005. "Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm‐Level Survey Data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 479-499, July.
    6. Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2006. "A Bayesian Indicator of Manufacturing Output from Qualitative Business Panel Survey Data," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 261, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    7. Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2005. "Forecasting manufacturing output growth using firm-level survey data," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 251, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    8. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2005. "Forecasting Manufacturing Output Growth Using Firm‐Level Survey Data," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 479-499, July.
    9. Martin Kukuk, 2002. "Indirect estimation of (latent) linear models with ordinal regressors A Monte Carlo study and some empirical illustrations," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 379-399, July.

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