Robust volatility forecasts and model selection in financial time series
In order to cope with the stylized facts of financial time series, many models have been proposed inside the GARCH family (e.g. EGARCH, GJR-GARCH, QGARCH, FIGARCH, LSTGARCH) and the stochastic volatility models (e.g. SV). Generally, all these models tend to produce very similar results as concerns forecasting performance. Most of the time it is difficult to choose which is the most appropriate specification. In addition, all these models are very sensitive to the presence of atypical observations. The purpose of this paper is to provide the user with new robust model selection procedures in financial models which downweight or eliminate the effect of atypical observations. The extreme case is when outliers are treated as missing data. In this paper we extend the theory of missing data to the family of GARCH models and show how to robustify the loglikelihood to make it insensitive to the presence of outliers. The suggested procedure enables us both to detect atypical observations and to select the best models in terms of forecasting performance.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via J.F. Kennedy 6, 43100 PARMA (Italy)|
Web page: http://economia.unipr.it/de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rossi, Alessandro & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006.
"Volatility estimation via hidden Markov models,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 203-230, March.
- Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2005. "Outliers and GARCH models in financial data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 347-352, March.
- Park, Beum-Jo, 2002. "An Outlier Robust GARCH Model and Forecasting Volatility of Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 381-93, August.
- Xibin Zhang, 2004. "Assessment of Local Influence in GARCH Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 301-313, 03.
- Enrique Sentana, 1995.
"Quadratic ARCH Models,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 62(4), pages 639-661.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993.
"On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks,"
157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Riani Marco, 2004. "Extensions of the Forward Search to Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-25, May.
- González-Rivera Gloria, 1998. "Smooth-Transition GARCH Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, July.
- Grossi Luigi, 2004. "Analyzing Financial Time Series through Robust Estimators," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15, May.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996.
"Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Baillie, Bollerslev, Mikkelson FIGARCH results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00009, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:par:dipeco:2006-se02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Andrea Lasagni)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.