Estimation and Properties of a Time-Varying EGARCH(1,1) in Mean Model
Time-varying GARCH-M models are commonly employed in econometrics and financial economics. Yet the recursive nature of the conditional variance makes exact likelihood analysis of these models computationally infeasible. This paper outlines the issues and suggests to employ a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which allows the calculation of a classical estimator via the simulated EM algorithm or a simulated Bayesian solution in only O(T) computational operations, where T is the sample size. Furthermore, the theoretical dynamic properties of a time-varying-parameter EGARCH(1,1)-M are derived. We discuss them and apply the suggested Bayesian estimation to three major stock markets.
|Date of creation:||30 Jul 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 76, Patission Street, Athens 104 34|
Phone: (+301) 8214021
Fax: (301) 8214021
Web page: http://deos.aueb.gr/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- He, Changli & Ter svirta, Timo & Malmsten, Hans, 2002.
"Moment Structure Of A Family Of First-Order Exponential Garch Models,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(04), pages 868-885, August.
- Changli He & Timo Terasvirta & Hans Malmsten, 1999. "Fourth Moment Structure of a Family of First-Order Exponential GARCH Models," Research Paper Series 29, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Enrique Sentana, 1995.
"Quadratic ARCH Models,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 62(4), pages 639-661.
- Gallant, A. Ronald & Hsieh, David & Tauchen, George, 1995.
"Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models with Diagnostics,"
95-36, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Gallant, A. Ronald & Hsieh, David & Tauchen, George, 1997. "Estimation of stochastic volatility models with diagnostics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 159-192, November.
- Sofia Anyfantaki & Antonis Demos, 2012. "Estimation and Properties of a Time-Varying EGARCH(1,1) in Mean Model," DEOS Working Papers 1228, Athens University of Economics and Business.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
- Stelios Arvanitis & Antonis Demos, 2004. "Time Dependence and Moments of a Family of Time-Varying Parameter Garch in Mean Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 1-25, 01.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November.
- Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana Iváñez, 1997.
"Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models,"
Working Papers. Serie AD
1997-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
- Sentana, E. & Fiorentini, G., 1997. "Identification, Estimation and Testing of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Model," Papers 9709, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987.
"Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications,"
NBER Working Papers
2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
- Antonis Demos, 2002. "Moments and dynamic structure of a time-varying parameter stochastic volatility in mean model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 345-357, 06.
- Poirier, Dale J., 1998. "Revising Beliefs In Nonidentified Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(04), pages 483-509, August.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes regression with autoregressive errors : A Gibbs sampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 275-294, August.
- Vrontos, I D & Dellaportas, P & Politis, D N, 2000. "Full Bayesian Inference for GARCH and EGARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(2), pages 187-98, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:1228. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekaterini Glynou)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.