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Extremum Estimation when the Predictors are Estimated from Large Panels

Author

Listed:
  • Jushan Bai

    (Department of Economics, NYU)

  • Serena Ng

    (Department of Economics, Columbia University)

Abstract

Much is written about the use of factors estimated by the method of principal components from large panels in linear regression models. In this paper, we provide an analysis for non-linear estimation and establish the conditions under which the estimated factors can be treated as though they were observable. The results can be used to estimate probabilities as in probit type analysis as well as classification of observations into types conditional on covariates. Comparison with traditional generated regressors is also made.

Suggested Citation

  • Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2008. "Extremum Estimation when the Predictors are Estimated from Large Panels," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(2), pages 201-222, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2008:v:9:i:2:p:201-222
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April.
    2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    3. Amemiya, Yasuo, 1985. "Instrumental variable estimator for the nonlinear errors-in-variables model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 273-289, June.
    4. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Evaluating latent and observed factors in macroeconomics and finance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 507-537.
    5. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    7. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    8. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    9. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "How the Subprime Crisis went global: Evidence from bank credit default swap spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1299-1318.
    2. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
    3. Gonzalo, Jesús & Dolado Lobregad, Juan José & Chen, Liang, 2017. "Quantile Factor Models," UC3M Working papers. Economics 25299, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    4. Vicente Maldonado, Javier de & Ruiz Ortega, Esther & González-Rivera, Gloria, 2018. "Growth in Stress," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 26623, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    5. Olfa Kaabia & Ilyes Abid, 2012. "Theoretical Channels of International,Transmission During the Subprime Crisis to OCDE Countries : A FAVAR Model Under Bayesian Framework," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-40, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
    7. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-Linear estimation; Large panels; Extremum estimators; Probit Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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