Empirical assessment of sustainability and feasibility of government debt: The Philippines case
This paper develops empirical methods of assessing the sustainability and feasibility of public debt using the No Ponzi Game criterion, using the Philippines as the testing case. Both historical data and forecasts generated by a quarterly macro-econometric model are used in the assessment. Stochastic simulations are carried out to mimic future uncertainty. The test results show that, up to the end of the present administration in 2010, the Philippine government debt is not sustainable but weakly feasible, that the feasibility is vulnerable to major adverse shocks, and that simple budgetary deficit control policy is inadequate for achieving debt sustainability or strengthening feasibility.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Philippe Weil, 1992.
"Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games Under Uncertainty,"
NBER Working Papers
3992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard Olivier & Weil Philippe, 2001. "Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games under Uncertainty," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-23, November.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Philippe Weil, 2001. "Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games under Uncertainty," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8607, Sciences Po.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Philippe Weil, 2001. "Dynamic Efficiency, the Riskless Rate, and Debt Ponzi Games under Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-01030812, HAL.
- Desiree A. Desierto & Geoffrey M. Ducanes, 2013. "Philippines," Chapters, in: Asia Rising, chapter 13, pages 385-407 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Emmanuel S. de Dios, et al, 2004. "The Deepening Crisis : The Real Score on Deficits and the Public Debt," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 200409, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
- Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 2002.
"A Brazilian Debt-Crisis Model,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3541, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bohn, H., 1990.
"The Sutainability Of Budget Deficits In A Stochastic Economy,"
Weiss Center Working Papers
6-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
- Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-71, February.
- Michael Bergman, 2001. "Testing government solvency and the No Ponzi Game condition," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 27-29.
- Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Qin, Duo & Quising, Pilipinas, 2006. "A small macroeconometric model of the Philippine economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 45-55, January.
- Montiel, Peter J., 1993. "Fiscal aspects of developing countrydebt problems and debt and debt-service reduction operations : a conceptual framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1073, The World Bank.
- David E. Lebow, 2004. "Recent fiscal policy in selected industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 162, Bank for International Settlements.
- Stephen A. O'Connell & Stephen P. Zeldes, .
"Rational Ponzi Games,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
18-86, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002.
"Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons,"
Research Department Publications
4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6821, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nigel A Chalk & Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 00/81, International Monetary Fund.
- Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
- Hendry, David F, 2002. " Applied Econometrics without Sinning," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 591-604, September.
- Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
- Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
- Barbie, Martin & Hagedorn, Marcus & Kaul, Ashok, 2001. "Government Debt as Insurance against Macroeconomic Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 412, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:17:y:2006:i:1:p:63-84. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.