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The Emergence and Consolidation of Microsimulation Methods in France


  • François Legendre


[eng] The purpose of this paper is to trace the gradual emergence of microsimulation models dedicated to the analysis of tax and social security policies in France since the mid-1960s, as well as their subsequent consolidation since the mid-2000s. A brief outline of these models is given using the static/dynamic distinction. A connection is made between the construction of the Mir model (standing for Modèle de l'impôt sur le revenu, an income tax model) and the development of the Household income survey Revenus fiscaux. Then we distinguish two periods: An initial period that saw a proliferation of such models and a second period, of standardisation, during which the Ines model has acquired a central position. Besides ongoing evaluations (of minimum income and pension schemes, insurance for long-term care), the most recent expectations in this area relate to the ex ante evaluation of measures designed to accelerate the ecological transition and of universal income -type schemes. Finally, we underline that the recent replacement of all the periodic declarations made by employers to various administrations by a unique declaration (the Déclaration sociale nominative, or DSN) significantly renews the range of administrative sources capable of feeding into these models.

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  • François Legendre, 2019. "The Emergence and Consolidation of Microsimulation Methods in France," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE), issue 510-511-5, pages 201-217.
  • Handle: RePEc:nse:ecosta:ecostat_2019_510t_14

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Carole Bonnet & Sandrine Juin & Anne Laferrère, 2019. "Private Financing of Long‑Term Care: Income, Savings and Reverse Mortgages," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques (INSEE), issue 507-508, pages 5-24.
    2. Sophie Buffeteau & Emmanuelle Crenner & Sylvie Le Minez & Didier Blanchet, 2011. "Le modèle de microsimulation Destinie 2 : principales caractéristiques et premiers résultats," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 441(1), pages 101-121.
    3. Thomas Douenne, 2018. "The vertical and horizontal distributive effects of energy taxes," Working Papers 2018.10, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    4. Claire Marbot & Delphine Roy, 2015. "Projections du coût de l’APA et des caractéristiques de ses bénéficiaires à l’horizon 2040 à l’aide du modèle Destinie," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 481(1), pages 185-209.
    5. Didier Blanchet & Cyrille Hagneré & François Legendre & Florence Thibault, 2015. "Introduction. Microsimulations statique et dynamique appliquées aux politiques fiscales et sociales : modèles et méthodes," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 481(1), pages 5-30.
    6. Emmanuel Saez, 2002. "Optimal Income Transfer Programs: Intensive versus Extensive Labor Supply Responses," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(3), pages 1039-1073.
    7. François Legendre, 2004. "Micro-simulation et évaluation des politiques économiques et sociale : un panorama des développements récents en France," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 114(1), pages 17-53.
    8. Thomas Piketty, 1997. "La redistribution fiscale face au chômage," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 12(1), pages 157-201.
    9. Didier Blanchet & Jean-Marie Chanut, 1998. "Les retraites individuelles à long terme : une projection par microsimulation," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 315(1), pages 95-106.
    10. Didier Blanchet & Cyrille Hagneré & François Legendre & Florence Thibault, 2016. "Évaluation des politiques publiques, ex post et ex ante : l’apport de la microsimulation. Introduction," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 67(4), pages 685-696.
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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies


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