Predicting unemployment in short samples with internet job search query data
This article tests the power of a novel indicator based on job search related web queries in predicting quarterly unemployment rates in short samples. Augmenting standard time series specifications with this indicator definitely improves out-of-sample forecasting performance at nearly all in-sample interval lengths and forecast horizons, both when compared with models estimated on the same or on a much longer time series interval.
|Date of creation:||30 Oct 2009|
|Date of revision:|
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- Nikolaos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009.
"Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting,"
Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik),
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""Google it!" Forecasting the US unemployment rate with a Google job search index,"
18248, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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"The Internet and Job Search,"
in: Studies of Labor Market Intermediation, pages 67-86
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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