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Nowcasting and Forecasting the Monthly Food Stamps Data in the US using Online Search Data

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  • Fantazziini, Dean

Abstract

We propose the use of Google online search data for nowcasting and forecasting the number of food stamps recipients. We perform a large out-of-sample forecasting exercise with almost 3000 competing models with forecast horizons up to 2 years ahead, and we show that models including Google search data statistically outperform the competing models at all considered horizons. These results hold also with several robustness checks, considering alternative keywords, a falsification test, different out-of-samples, directional accuracy and forecasts at the state-level.

Suggested Citation

  • Fantazziini, Dean, 2014. "Nowcasting and Forecasting the Monthly Food Stamps Data in the US using Online Search Data," MPRA Paper 59696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:59696
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Mabli & Thomas Godfrey & Laura Castner & Stephen Tordella & Priscilla Foran, 2011. "Determinants of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Entry and Exit in the Mid-2000s (Summary)," Mathematica Policy Research Reports d4184be34db1456f98e3099b2, Mathematica Policy Research.
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    4. Eduardo Rossi & Dean Fantazzini, 2015. "Long Memory and Periodicity in Intraday Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 922-961.
    5. Nikolaos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2009. "Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 55(2), pages 107-120.
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    7. James Mabli & Thomas Godfrey & Laura Castner & Stephen Tordella & Priscilla Foran, 2011. "Determinants of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Entry and Exit in the Mid-2000s," Mathematica Policy Research Reports b6244526c98341d6bba91f07e, Mathematica Policy Research.
    8. Parke E. Wilde, 2013. "The New Normal: The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 325-331.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nikolaos Askitas & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2015. "The internet as a data source for advancement in social sciences," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(1), pages 2-12, April.
    2. Böhme, Marcus H. & Gröger, André & Stöhr, Tobias, 2020. "Searching for a better life: Predicting international migration with online search keywords," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Dean Fantazzini, 2020. "Short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic using Google Trends data: Evidence from 158 countries," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 59, pages 33-54.
    4. Neto, David, 2021. "Are Google searches making the Bitcoin market run amok? A tail event analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Kerry Liu, 2023. "America's decoupling from China: A perspective from stock markets," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 32-52, February.
    6. Simionescu, Mihaela & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2017. "Big Data and Unemployment Analysis," GLO Discussion Paper Series 81, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food Stamps; Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program; Google; Forecasting; Global Financial Crisis; Great Recession.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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