Forecasting Welfare Caseloads: The Case of the Japanese Public Assistance Program
Forecasting welfare caseloads has grown in importance in Japan because of their recent rapid increase. Given that the forecasting literature on welfare caseloads only focuses on US cases and utilizes limited classes of forecasting models, this study employs multiple alternative methods in order to forecast Japanese welfare caseloads and compare forecasting performances. In pseudo real-time forecasting, VAR and forecast combinations tend to outperform the other methods investigated. In real-time forecasting, however, a simple version of forecast combinations seems to perform better than the remaining models, predicting that welfare caseloads in Japan will surpass 1.7 million by the beginning of 2016, an approximately 20% increase in five years from the beginning of 2011.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/index.htmlEmail:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yu Hsing, 2004. "Socioeconomic analysis of the determinants of TANF recipients in the USA and policy implications," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(11/12), pages 1005-1013, October.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Bradley R. Schiller, 1999. "State Welfare-Reform Impacts: Content And Enforcement Effects," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(2), pages 210-222, 04.
- Rebecca M. Blank, 2000.
"What Causes Public Assistance Caseloads to Grow?,"
JCPR Working Papers
18, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Gustafsson, Bjorn, 1984. "Macroeconomic performance, old age security and the rate of social assistance recipients in Sweden," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 319-338, December.
- De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
- Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2008.
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-56, March.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud & Christie Smith, 2010.
"Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?,"
0002, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Karsten Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2012. "Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 163-179, 04.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland & Karsten Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts?," Working Paper 2009/01, Norges Bank.
- Brian Cadena & Sheldon Danziger & Kristin Seefeldt, 2006. "Measuring State Welfare Policy Changes: Why Don't They Explain Caseload and Employment Outcomes?," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 87(4), pages 808-817.
- Ronald D. Kneebone & Katherine G. White, 2009. "Fiscal Retrenchment and Social Assistance in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 35(1), pages 21-40, March.
- Victoria Lazariu & Chengxuan Yu & Craig Gundersen, 2011. "Forecasting Women, Infants, And Children Caseloads: A Comparison Of Vector Autoregression And Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approaches," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(1), pages 46-55, 01.
- Ashley, Richard, 1998. "A new technique for postsample model selection and validation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 647-665, May.
- David Norman & Anthony Richards, 2012. "The Forecasting Performance of Single Equation Models of Inflation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(280), pages 64-78, 03.
- Conte, Michael & Levy, David T. & Shahrokh, Fereidoon & Staveley, Jane & Thompson, Steven, 1998. "Economic Determinants of Income Maintenance Programs: The Maryland Forecasting Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 461-481, August.
- Grogger, Jeffrey, 2007.
"Markov forecasting methods for welfare caseloads,"
Children and Youth Services Review,
Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 900-911, July.
- BRADLEY R. Schiller & C. NIELSEN Brasher, 1993. "Effects Of Workfare Saturation On Afdc Caseloads," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(2), pages 39-49, 04.
- Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998.
"Modelling asymmetries and moving equilibria in unemployment rates,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
262, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 05 Oct 1998.
- Skalin, Joakim & Ter svirta, Timo, 2002. "Modeling Asymmetries And Moving Equilibria In Unemployment Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 202-241, April.
- Martin Alteriis, 1990. "Local Governments As Implementors Of Public Policy," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 9(4), pages 765-773, 06.
- Anders Bredahl Kock & Timo Teräsvirta, 2010. "Forecasting with nonlinear time series models," CREATES Research Papers 2010-01, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Wataru Suzuki & Yanfei Zhou, 2007. "Welfare Use in Japan: Trends and Determinants," Journal of Income Distribution, Journal of Income Distribution, vol. 16(3-4), pages 88-109, September.
- Edlund, Per-Olov & Karlsson, Sune, 1993. "Forecasting the Swedish unemployment rate VAR vs. transfer function modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-76, April.
- Shah, Parth J & Smith, Patricia K, 1995. " Do Welfare Benefits Cause the Welfare Caseload?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 85(1-2), pages 91-105, October.
- James P. Ziliak & David N. Figlio & Elizabeth E. Davis & Laura S. Connolly, 2000. "Accounting for the Decline in AFDC Caseloads: Welfare Reform or the Economy?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(3), pages 570-586.
- Michael J. New, 1982. "State Sanctions and the Decline in Welfare Caseloads," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 2(3), pages 515-533, Winter.
- Luis Ayala & César Pérez, 2005.
"Macroeconomic conditions, institutional factors and demographic structure: What causes welfare caseloads?,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 563-581, 09.
- Luis Ayala & César Pérez, . "Macroeconomic Conditions, Institutional Factors And Demographic Structure: What Causes Welfare Caseloads?," Working Papers 2-03, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
- Jacob Alex Klerman & Steven J. Haider, 2004. "A Stock-Flow Analysis of the Welfare Caseload," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(4).
- Lawrence M. Meada, 2000. "Caseload change: An exploratory study," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 465-472.
- Jarita Duasa & Nursilah Ahmad & Mansor H. Ibrahim & Mohd Pisal Zainal, 2010. "Forecasting inflation in Malaysia," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 573-594.
- Chien-Chung Huang & Irwin Garfinkel & Jane Waldfogel, 2004. "Child Support Enforcement and Welfare Caseloads," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(1).
- Philippe J. Deschamps, 2008.
"Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US unemployment,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 435-462.
- Deschamps, Philippe J., 2007. "Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US Unemployment," DQE Working Papers 7, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland, revised 04 Jun 2008.
- Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2009. "A Simple Explanation of the Forecast Combination Puzzle," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 331-355, 06.
- Marianne E. Page & Joanne Spetz & Jane Millar, 2005.
"Does the minimum wage affect welfare caseloads?,"
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 273-295.
- Brian C. Hill & Matthew N. Murray, 2008. "Interactions Between Welfare Caseloads And Local Labor Markets," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 539-554, October.
- Terry R. Johnson & Daniel H. Klepinger & Fred B. Dong, 1994. "Caseload Impacts Of Welfare Reform," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 89-101, 01.
- Corrado Andini, 2006. "Unemployment and Welfare Participation in a Structural VAR: Rethinking the 1990s in the United States," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 243-253.
- Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53.
- Thomas R. Klassen & Daniel Buchanan, 1997. "Getting it Backward?: Economy and Welfare in Ontario 1985-1996," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 23(3), pages 333-338, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2012cf846. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CIRJE administrative office)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.